Coffee Prices Today, September 24: Sharp Decline on Hopes of U.S.-Brazil Trade Talks

Coffee prices today fell sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, raising hopes of progress toward a potential trade agreement.

Global Coffee Price Update

On September 23, robusta futures on the London Exchange turned lower:

• The November 2025 contract dropped 3.79% (down 162 USD/ton) to 4,118 USD/ton.
• The January 2026 contract declined 3.52% (down 149 USD/ton) to 4,079 USD/ton.

On the New York Exchange, arabica futures also slid significantly:

• The December 2025 contract fell 4.18% (down 15.4 US cents/pound) to 351.95 US cents/pound.
• The March 2026 contract slipped 3.12% (down 10.9 US cents/pound) to 337 US cents/pound.

According to Reuters and Bloomberg, arabica futures hit their lowest level in a month as traders reacted to Trump’s announcement, which sparked expectations that the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee could be reconsidered.

“The market reacted immediately to the news of the meeting,” said a trader at a European coffee company, adding that it would be natural for the two leaders to reach some compromise on tariffs, given coffee’s importance to the U.S. coffee industry—the largest in the world.

Weather and Crop Prospects in Brazil

Traders also noted that rainfall in Brazil has improved prospects for next year’s crop, which is currently in the flowering stage.

The Brazilian weather agency Somar Meteorologia reported rain in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing state, on September 23 and forecast continued rainfall throughout the week.

“This is a positive sign because the rain has arrived at a critical time, creating optimism for a larger harvest next season,” said Fernando Maximiliano, analyst at StoneX. He added that a “bumper crop” in Brazil is necessary to rebuild global inventories after several years of weaker harvests that reduced stock levels worldwide.

Robusta Market and Vietnam’s Role

Losses in robusta were partly cushioned by concerns about heavy rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. The region is the country’s key coffee-growing area and the world’s largest source of robusta. Extended rains could damage cherries entering the final development stage before harvest, creating supply risks and potentially affecting export volumes.

Tight Inventories

ICE-monitored inventories continued to decline:

• Arabica stocks fell to 615,903 bags as of September 23, the lowest in 17 months.
• Robusta stocks dropped to 6,464 lots by the end of last week, the lowest in nearly two months.

These low stock levels are contributing to tighter supply conditions, even as futures prices decline.

Uganda’s Coffee Exports

Uganda, Africa’s largest coffee exporter, reported weaker export earnings in August. The Ministry of Agriculture announced:

• Export value fell 8.2% year-on-year to 202.8 million USD, mainly due to weaker global coffee prices.
• Export volume rose 2.5% year-on-year to 855,441 60-kg bags, supported by good harvests in most growing regions.

The decline in export value reflects the spillover effects of lower global prices in July. Coffee and gold remain Uganda’s two biggest exports and primary sources of foreign exchange.