Coffee Prices Today, September 27: Both Exchanges Rally Strongly to End the Week

Coffee prices rose sharply on global exchanges today, with robusta gaining 107 USD/ton and arabica climbing 7.5 US cents/pound. The market partially recovered from the recent downturn, supported by tightening certified inventories.

Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on September 26:

• On the London exchange, November 2025 robusta futures increased 2.61% (up 107 USD/ton) to 4,201 USD/ton.
• January 2026 contracts rose 2.45% (up 100 USD/ton) to 4,182 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange:

• December 2025 arabica futures advanced 2.02% (up 7.5 US cents/pound) to 378.85 US cents/pound.
• March 2026 contracts gained 2.12% (up 7.45 US cents/pound) to 358.9 US cents/pound.

According to Reuters, the market rebounded in part after recent declines, as Brazil’s next crop outlook improved with rainfall.

In a report, BMI noted: “Prices have recovered, driven by expectations of tighter ICE-certified stocks, following the U.S. imposition of a 50% tariff on coffee imports from Brazil.”

The U.S. tariff has accelerated stock drawdowns on the ICE exchange, becoming a supportive factor for coffee prices.

As of September 25, ICE-certified coffee inventories stood at 579,961 bags, down 21,756 bags from the previous day. A month ago, inventories were at 729,934 bags.

• ICE-certified arabica stocks fell to 576,753 bags on Friday, the lowest level in 18 months.
• ICE-certified robusta stocks also dropped to 6,464 lots, their lowest in nearly 1.8 months.

Focus on U.S.–Brazil Trade Talks

Markets are awaiting the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) said exports to the U.S. will continue to decline unless tariffs are adjusted.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that in the week ending September 23, speculators cut 2,935 net long positions in arabica coffee, bringing the total to 22,730 lots.

Brazilian Crop and Exports

According to I & M Smith, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest (July 2025 – June 2026) is nearly complete, with conilon robusta output estimated at an average of 27 million bags—higher than previously projected.

Cecafé reported that Brazil’s cumulative conilon robusta exports for the 2024/25 season (July 2024 – June 2025) reached 6.58 million bags, down 20.25% year-on-year.

This year remains a bumper year for Brazilian robusta conilon producers, with most of the crop serving domestic consumption. However, there is potential to increase exports to consumer markets.

In Indonesia, the ongoing robusta harvest continues to flow into the domestic market, meeting demand for roasting and instant coffee production, as well as exports. For the April–March crop year, with about 85% robusta, production is cautiously forecast at 12.1 million bags, of which around 10.5 million bags will be robusta.

Vietnam Outlook and Weather Concerns

In Vietnam, heavy rainfall is forecast in the Central Highlands next week, just as the world’s largest robusta producer prepares to begin the new harvest season (October 2025 – September 2026). The expected rain follows heavy downpours caused by Typhoon Kajiki in late August.

Typically, farmers wait for drier weather in the coming weeks before beginning harvest. However, prolonged rains will be closely monitored, as they could delay harvesting operations.

EU Delays Deforestation Law Implementation

The European Commission (EC) announced a proposal to postpone the enforcement of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), originally scheduled for December 2025. If approved, the new enforcement date will be December 30, 2026—two years later than initially planned.

The delay aims to provide more time to ensure effective implementation, including finalizing and applying the EU’s mandatory reporting and due diligence system for commodities such as cattle, coffee, cocoa, palm oil, rubber, soybeans, and timber.