Coffee Prices Today 2/10: Robusta Surges Over $200/Ton, Market Buzzes with Activity

Coffee prices continued to climb on both exchanges today, with Robusta jumping by $203/ton and Arabica increasing by 9.05 US cents/pound. The supply-demand balance is nearly even for the 2025-2026 crop year, but this has not brought a sense of security as inventories remain low.

World Coffee Price Update

At the close of the trading session on October 1st, coffee prices saw a significant surge on both the London and New York exchanges.

Robusta – London On the London exchange, the online price for Robusta futures for November 2025 delivery reached $4,403/ton, a sharp increase of 4.83% ($203/ton) compared to the previous session. The contract for January 2026 delivery also jumped by 4.83% ($202/ton) to $4,388/ton.

Term	Match Price	Change	Highest	Lowest
11/25	4403	+203 (4.83%)	4458	4151
01/26	4388	+202 (4.83%)	4426	4141
03/26	4338	+195 (4.71%)	4369	4101
05/26	4298	+189 (4.60%)	4316	4072
07/26	4262	+182 (4.46%)	4277	4042

Arabica – New York On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for December 2025 delivery climbed to 383.90 US cents/pound, an increase of 2.41% (+9.05 cents). The contract for March 2026 delivery rose 2.54% (+9.10 cents) to 368.05 US cents/pound.

Term	Match Price	Change	Highest	Lowest
12/25	383.90	+9.05 (2.41%)	384.75	366.60
03/26	368.05	+9.10 (2.54%)	368.75	351.30
05/26	357.05	+9.60 (2.76%)	358.00	340.50
07/26	346.25	+9.85 (2.93%)	347.25	329.90
09/26	334.95	+10.15 (3.12%)	335.65	318.00

After an initial dip, coffee prices recovered and surged, with Robusta hitting a 1.5-week high. The 50% U.S. tariff on coffee imported from Brazil has caused a sharp decline in ICE-certified inventories, becoming a key price-supporting factor.

ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 563,351 bags as of Wednesday. Robusta inventories on ICE also dropped to a 2.25-month low of 6,450 lots.

According to estimates from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam’s coffee exports in September reached 84,000 tons, valued at $477 million. This is a 0.1% decrease in volume but a 3.7% increase in value compared to August, and a 63.5% rise in volume and 66.3% rise in value compared to September 2024.

Cumulatively, in the first 9 months of 2025, coffee exports are estimated at 1.23 million tons, worth $6.98 billion, an increase of 11% in volume and a sharp 61.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024. This turnover figure has already far surpassed the record for the entire year of 2024, which was $5.6 billion.

The average export price for Vietnamese coffee in September is estimated at $5,679/ton, up 3.8% from August and 1.7% from September 2024. For the first 9 months, the average export price is estimated at $5,658/ton, up 45.3% year-on-year.

According to Comunicaffe, Typhoon Bualoi in Vietnam has caused dozens of casualties and missing persons, with heavy rains causing flooding on some farms and roads. Damage reports are still preliminary, and it will take several more days to get a clearer assessment of the impact on the crop.

In an interview with Notícias Agrícolas, Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at the consulting firm StoneX, offered his insights on coffee market trends for the coming months.

Maximiliano stated that the current price volatility has been ongoing for some time and stems from multiple factors. Firstly, according to StoneX estimates, global inventories have decreased by about 22 million bags over the past four years. Low inventory levels tend to support prices, as they reduce the buffer against supply shocks or supply chain disruptions.

Additionally, this year’s decline in Brazil’s Arabica production must be considered, along with weather uncertainties and the seasonal distribution of rainfall in the coffee belt.

However, high coffee prices driven by inflation are negatively impacting consumption. For example, according to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC), Brazil’s domestic retail consumption fell by 5.4% in the first 8 months of the year.

Therefore, we are witnessing an intertwined combination of bullish and bearish factors, which explains the volatility we are currently observing.

According to Mr. Maximiliano, the market is expected to reach a relatively balanced state in the 2025-2026 crop year, with a slight surplus of about 400,000 bags, despite the decline in Brazilian production. This is due to increased production in Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam (up by about 7%), while consumption is trending downward in some countries, starting with Brazil and the US.

As a result, global consumption is forecast to decrease by about 3%. This brings the supply-demand balance close to equilibrium but does not yet provide a sense of security as inventories remain low.

The outlook will become more positive when inventories are replenished, which is unlikely this year but could begin in the 2026-2027 crop year if Brazil’s production recovers.