Coffee Prices Today, October 4th: Surge Driven by Drought Concerns in Brazil

Today’s coffee prices soared, with Robusta futures jumping by $205 per metric ton and Arabica rising by 12.65 cents per pound. The primary driver for this bullish sentiment is the persistent dry weather in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer.

Global Coffee Market Update

Coffee prices surged to a two-week high, supported by mounting concerns over dry weather conditions in Brazil during the crucial flowering stage for the 2026-2027 coffee crop.

At the close of trading on October 3rd, Robusta futures for the November 2025 contract on the London exchange settled at $4,527 per metric ton, a significant increase of 4.74% ($205 per ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rose by 4.55% ($197 per ton), closing at $4,522 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for the December 2025 contract climbed by 3.35% (12.65 cents per pound), reaching 390.75 cents per pound. The March 2026 contract saw a 3.23% increase (11.7 cents per pound), settling at 374.15 cents per pound.

According to Climatempo, dry conditions are expected to intensify in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions over the coming week, accompanied by above-normal temperatures. This could induce heat stress in some of the region’s coffee plantations.

Meanwhile, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories have fallen to a 1.5-year low of 538,606 bags as of this Friday. Similarly, ICE Robusta stocks decreased to a 2.25-month low, standing at 6,345 lots as of October 2nd.

Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort stated that the combination of prolonged dry weather, continually declining certified inventories, and the potential for fund buying driven by weather fears are the main factors fueling the price rally, as reported by Bloomberg.

Van Dort noted that timely rainfall is critical to support the recent flowering stage and to calm market anxieties, especially since no rain has been recorded since September 23rd. “If the forecast for rain materializes, we could see a downward price correction,” he added.

According to a report by broker Thiago Cazarini, the main flowering period for Brazil’s 2026-2027 crop has already occurred, but this month’s rainfall “will be decisive” for the coffee trees’ development. Favorable weather could boost production by up to 20% compared to the same period last year, but the market is currently “more inclined towards a bullish scenario than a bearish one,” he observed.

In a report on Friday, Climatempo meteorologist Nadiara Pereira stated that hot and dry weather will intensify in Brazil’s coffee regions over the weekend. Daytime temperatures are set to continue rising, which could cause heat shock in some areas.

Furthermore, the potential emergence of the La Niña weather phenomenon between October and December—which typically brings drier conditions to South America—also increases the risks to the development of the coffee crop.