Coffee Prices Today, October 8th: Continue to Decline on Optimistic Signals from US-Brazil Trade Talks

Today’s coffee prices continued their decline for a second consecutive day. The market sentiment was primarily influenced by news that the presidents of Brazil and the United States have agreed to an in-person meeting soon, raising hopes of a resolution to bilateral trade tensions that have been at their most strained in decades.

Domestic Coffee Price Update

According to a survey, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands region continued to fall today, dropping by another 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, with the current range standing at 113,000 – 114,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the price of coffee in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces was adjusted to 114,000 VND/kg. Following this, the price in Gia Lai reached 113,500 VND/kg, while Lam Dong recorded the lowest price in the region at 113,000 VND/kg.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 7th, futures prices on both major exchanges saw further decreases.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures for the November 2025 contract settled at $4,414 per metric ton, a continued decline of 1.26% ($57/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract fell by 1.69% ($76/ton) to close at $4,388 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for the December 2025 contract also dropped by 1.55% (5.95 US cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 375.40 US cents/pound. The March 2026 contract decreased by 1.58% (5.80 US cents/lb) to 359.15 US cents/pound.

According to Reuters, the Brazilian government announced that the presidents of Brazil and the United States have agreed to an in-person meeting in the near future following a “cordial” video call on October 6th. This development has sparked optimism for a mending of bilateral relations.

Traders expressed some surprise that the market did not react more strongly to this news, given the intense focus on whether the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian imports—a factor that pushed Arabica prices to a seven-month high in September—might be lifted. The 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee entering the U.S. was a significant driver of the price rally in the third quarter of this year; therefore, any indication that the tariff could be removed or reduced is seen as a bearish factor, putting downward pressure on prices.

Contrasting with the price drop, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories continued to fall, reaching a new 1.5-year low of 534,665 bags as of October 7th. Meanwhile, Robusta inventories also declined to 6,293 lots, the lowest level in 2.5 months.

On the supply side, the Brazilian government reported that the country exported 3.26 million bags of green coffee in September, a decrease of 19.5% compared to the same period last year. Additionally, Brazilian coffee farmers report that while flowering is widespread, more rain is still needed to ensure good fruit setting. However, in a recent update, the weather agency Climatempo reported that widespread rain is expected to move from São Paulo state to Minas Gerais this week, with some areas potentially receiving over 30 mm of precipitation.

US-based firm Cardiff Coffee Trading noted: “It is too early to say that this rally is over. Just a small piece of negative news on the supply front could cause the market to surge again,” adding that the weather situation in Brazil remains highly uncertain.

Colombia Production Update

The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) announced that Colombia has concluded its best coffee crop year in over three decades, thanks to favorable weather conditions and the positive impact of crop renovation efforts. However, production is expected to decrease in the upcoming crop year.

Production in Colombia—the world’s third-largest producer after Brazil and Vietnam—increased by 17% year-over-year to 14.87 million 60-kg bags in the period from October 2024 to September 2025, surpassing the forecast of 14 million bags for the full year.

“We are now entering the 2025-2026 coffee year, and due to the natural physiological response of the coffee trees and heavy rainfall in the first half of the year, this season is projected to have lower production,” said Federation Director German Bahamon on the platform X.

Colombia currently has approximately 840,000 hectares of coffee cultivation, supporting around 540,000 families.

Washed Arabica production in September rose by 7% year-over-year to 1.14 million bags, though this was a decrease from the 1.24 million bags produced in August. Colombia’s coffee exports in September also increased by 6%, reaching 1.06 million bags.

According to the national statistics agency DANE, the value of Colombia’s coffee exports from January to August surged by 79.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching $3.67 billion, driven by sustained high international coffee prices.