Coffee Prices Today, October 15th: Arabica Surges While Robusta Reverses and Declines

Today’s coffee market showed a divergent performance across the major exchanges. Arabica prices continued their strong rally for a second consecutive day, while Robusta reversed course, falling by $73 per metric ton.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 14th, Robusta futures on the London exchange declined. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,487 per metric ton, a decrease of 1.59% ($73/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also fell by 1.04% ($47/ton) to close at $4,420 per metric ton.

In contrast, Arabica futures on the New York exchange continued to surge. The December 2025 contract climbed by a significant 3.75% (14.45 US cents/lb) from the prior session, closing at 399.65 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract also saw a strong gain of 2.96% (10.85 US cents/lb), settling at 377.80 US cents per pound.

Domestic Coffee Price Update (Vietnam)

Reflecting the drop in London futures, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands fell by an average of 700 VND/kg. The current price range is between 113,000 and 113,800 VND/kg.

• In Dak Lak and Dak Nong, prices fell to 113,800 VND/kg.
• In Gia Lai, the price is 113,500 VND/kg.
• In Lam Dong, the price is 113,000 VND/kg.

Market Analysis

According to reports from Reuters and Barchart, Arabica prices rallied to their highest level since mid-September due to renewed concerns over dry weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer. Weather forecasters are now projecting a dry spell lasting from approximately October 20th through the end of the month. This lack of rain is raising concerns about the crop’s yield potential, especially during the critical flowering stage for Brazil’s 2026-2027 season.

Traders are also concerned about the decline in exchange-held Arabica inventories, which are currently at their lowest level since March 2024. Specifically:

• ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a new 1.5-year low of 496,808 bags as of October 14th.
• ICE Robusta inventories also declined to a 2.75-month low of 6,228 lots.

Conversely, favorable rainfall in Vietnam is putting downward pressure on Robusta prices. Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s key coffee-growing region, is forecasted to receive above-average rainfall until October 20th, which will support coffee tree development and crop yields. Dak Lak province, the country’s largest coffee-growing area, is expected to receive approximately 70 mm of rain next week, compared to a historical average of 61.3 mm.

Vietnam Export Performance Update

According to data from Vietnam Customs, for the full 2024-2025 crop year (October 2024 – September 2025), Vietnam exported a total of 1.48 million metric tons of coffee, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to the 2023-2024 season. However, the export value surged by 52.9% to a record $8.3 billion.

This impressive growth in revenue was driven by an average export price of $5,630 per metric ton, which is 53.3% higher than the previous crop year. Coffee prices have been on a consistent upward trend for the last five seasons, setting new records and reflecting the sustained growth of this strategic commodity.

Other Origin News: Uganda

Meanwhile, Uganda’s Ministry of Finance reported that the leading African coffee exporter earned $3.5 billion in the quarter ending in June, a significant increase from the $2.2 billion earned in the same period in 2024.

The Ministry stated: “Revenue from coffee exports increased as the country continued to benefit from improved production as well as better international coffee prices.”

In recent months, both the production and export of coffee from Uganda have increased, thanks to newly planted coffee trees entering their productive phase and farmers increasing sales in response to high world prices.

According to data from Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture, in the 12 months leading up to August, the value of Uganda’s coffee exports reached $2.2 billion, up from $1.4 billion in the previous year. The strong foreign currency earnings from these exports have also supported Uganda’s local currency, which has appreciated by 6.8% year-to-date, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).