Coffee Prices Today, October 21st: Arabica Continues Strong Rally on Colombia Tariff Concerns; Robusta Eases

Coffee prices showed a continued divergence today, with Arabica futures extending gains while the Robusta market experienced a decline. U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement regarding potential aid cuts and new tariffs on Colombia introduced a fresh threat to global coffee supply, further bolstering Arabica prices.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 20th, futures prices reflected this split sentiment.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures declined. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,516 per metric ton, a decrease of 0.78% ($36/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also fell by 0.30% ($14/ton) to close at $4,464 per metric ton.

Conversely, on the New York exchange, Arabica futures posted significant gains for another session. The December 2025 contract surged by 2.16% (8.60 US cents/lb) from the prior session, closing strongly at 406.05 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract also saw a solid increase of 2.05% (7.70 US cents/lb), settling at 383.30 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to Bloomberg and Barchart, Arabica coffee futures rallied sharply, driven by two key factors: Brazilian coffee inventories in exchange-monitored warehouses falling to a five-year low, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on Colombia.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported last Friday that approximately 7,000 bags of Brazilian coffee were withdrawn from storage. This drawdown brought the inventory level of coffee beans from Brazil—the world’s largest producer—to its lowest point since October 2020.

Total certified coffee stocks on ICE as of October 17th stood at 467,110 bags, a decrease of 26,673 bags from the previous day, continuing a steady downward trend. Just one month prior, inventories were at 659,949 bags. This decline occurs as U.S. roasters continue to deplete existing reserves due to supply scarcity and increased tariff costs on Brazilian coffee.

Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director of commodity research firm Commtrendz Research, noted that traders have been hesitant to sign new contracts for Brazilian coffee following Mr. Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on exports from the country. These tariffs were a topic of discussion during last week’s meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Adding a new layer of uncertainty, President Trump announced that the U.S. would halt aid and impose new tariffs on Colombia, creating a fresh potential disruption to global coffee supply. Brazil and Colombia are currently the two largest suppliers of unroasted coffee to the U.S. market, and beans from Colombia were expected to help offset the decline in exports from Brazil due to the existing tariffs. There are even reports of Brazilian coffee being transshipped through Colombia to circumvent U.S. duties.

While the impact of potential Colombian tariffs remains unclear, as Mr. Trump did not specify the rate, any additional fees would negatively affect roasters, who have largely absorbed recent cost increases rather than passing them on to consumers, according to Tomas Araujo, Senior Trading Specialist at StoneX.

Monday’s sharp rally in Arabica prices caused the price differential (arbitrage) between Arabica and Robusta to widen to its highest level since 2008.

Meanwhile, London Robusta prices, representing the less expensive bean, traded within a narrower range and showed more stability. This relative calm is attributed to expectations of a large upcoming harvest from the world’s leading producer, Vietnam, as reported weekly by coffee importer List + Beisler.

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London Robusta Futures Chart (Closing Data for Oct 20th, 2025)

Contract Month: November 2025 (Nearest Active)
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Closing Price:  4,516 USD/ton
Change:         -36 USD (-0.78%)
Day's High:     4,633 USD/ton
Day's Low:      4,501 USD/ton
Open Price:     4,554 USD/ton
Previous Close: 4,552 USD/ton
Volume:         1,674 Lots
Open Interest:  10,531 Lots
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Date: October 20, 2025

(This data represents the key figures for the front-month contract shown in your Robusta table image for the Oct 20th session, formatted similarly to the data box in the Investing.com chart image).