Coffee Prices Today, October 22nd: Both Exchanges Rally, Robusta Surges Over $100/Ton

Coffee prices moved higher across both major exchanges today, with Robusta futures staging a strong recovery, jumping by $104 per metric ton, while Arabica added 7.5 US cents per pound. Traders are increasingly concerned about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee producer and second-largest Arabica producer.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 21st, futures prices reflected renewed upward momentum.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures saw a significant rebound. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,620 per metric ton, a sharp increase of 2.30% ($104/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rallied strongly, gaining 2.46% ($110/ton) to close at $4,574 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures continued their upward trend. The December 2025 contract rose by 1.85% (7.50 US cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 413.55 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract added 2.07% (7.95 US cents/lb) to reach 391.25 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to Reuters, coffee futures on ICE gained ground as traders grew increasingly worried about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Colombia. Colombia is a pivotal player in the coffee market, ranked as the world’s third-largest producer overall and the second-largest producer of Arabica, trailing only Brazil.

Highlighting the diplomatic strain, Colombia recalled its ambassador to Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump announced intentions to increase tariffs on the South American nation and halt all payments to the country.

The U.S., the world’s largest coffee consumer, currently imposes a 10% tariff on imports from Colombia. The U.S. sources approximately one-fifth of its coffee beans from Colombia and one-third from Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Colombia holds the position of the second-largest coffee supplier to the U.S., after Brazil. In 2024, Colombia accounted for 19% of the U.S. coffee market share, compared to Brazil’s 32%.

However, during the first eight months of this year, the gap between the two suppliers narrowed significantly. Colombia’s coffee exports to the U.S. increased by 14.7% to 3.3 million bags—buoyed by a bumper crop—while Brazil’s exports decreased by 20.7%, also landing at 3.3 million bags.

The U.S.-Colombia tensions emerge while the market is still awaiting news regarding trade negotiations between the U.S. and Brazil. Last week, the two sides agreed to arrange a meeting between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva “as soon as possible.” Any move to reduce the 50% U.S. tariff on imports from Brazil, including coffee, could exert downward pressure on prices.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. retail coffee prices in August saw a year-on-year increase of nearly 21%. CNN reported that this rise is partly attributed to the new import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration: 50% on Brazil, 20% on Vietnam, and 10% on Colombia. The U.S. imports over 99% of the coffee it consumes, according to the National Coffee Association, with Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam being the largest suppliers.

Other Market Factors:

• EU Regulation: In a separate development, the European Commission (EC) has proposed further easing of the EU’s anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR), aiming to reduce the reporting burden for small producers and businesses. However, the proposal does not include a one-year delay of the landmark green policy, as had previously been suggested.
• Inventories: The 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports has led to a sharp decline in certified coffee stocks. ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 19-month low of 467,110 bags last Friday. ICE Robusta inventories also dropped to a 3-month low of 6,152 lots as of Tuesday this week.
• Brazil Weather: Concerns over dryness in Brazil have eased somewhat, with reports indicating more substantial rainfall. The Brazilian Meteorological Agency reported that the country’s largest Arabica region, Minas Gerais, received 44.7 mm of rain in the week ending October 18th, equivalent to 136% of the historical average.