Coffee Prices Today, October 23rd: Continue Strong Rally, Reaching 5-Week High

Coffee prices surged today to a five-week high across both major exchanges. The rally was fueled after Vietnam’s meteorological agency warned that heavy rains from Typhoon Fengshen could cause flash floods, landslides, and potentially damage coffee plantations in the Central Highlands, the country’s key coffee-growing region.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 22nd (Correction based on text: “Kết thúc phiên giao dịch ngày 23/10” means closing prices for Oct 23rd. Adjusting dates accordingly.), futures prices continued their strong upward momentum.

At the close of trading on October 23rd, Robusta futures on the London exchange saw another significant increase. The front-month November 2025 contract climbed 2.58% ($119/ton) from the previous session, settling at $4,739 per metric ton. The January 2026 contract also rose sharply, gaining 2.62% ($120/ton) to close at $4,694 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures posted gains for the fourth consecutive day. The December 2025 contract rose by 1.77% (7.30 US cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 420.85 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract added 1.92% (7.50 US cents/lb) to reach 398.75 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to Reuters and Barchart, coffee prices reached their highest level in five weeks, driven by the risk of potential U.S. punitive tariffs on Colombia and fresh weather concerns in Vietnam.

Geopolitical and Supply Concerns:

Traders are closely monitoring the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee producer. The imposition of punitive U.S. tariffs on Colombia would add further pressure on U.S. roasters, who are already grappling with a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.

Market participants noted that certified ICE coffee inventories as of October 21st stood at 468,410 bags, unchanged from the previous day, temporarily pausing a prolonged decline. One month ago, inventories were at 643,341 bags. ICE-monitored Arabica inventories had fallen to a 19-month low of 467,110 bags last Friday, while ICE Robusta inventories dropped to a 3-month low of 6,141 lots as of October 22nd.

Environmental Concerns in Brazil:

A recent report indicated that deforestation in Brazil linked to coffee plantations reached 737,000 hectares (1.8 million acres) between 2002 and 2023. The report warned that the negative environmental impact of this forest loss could affect the country’s coffee industry long-term.

Weather Concerns in Vietnam:

Robusta prices also found significant support from concerns about the harvest in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer. Vietnam’s meteorological agency warned that heavy rains associated with Typhoon Fengshen could cause flash floods and landslides, potentially damaging coffee plantations in the Central Highlands.

Vietnam Production & Export Outlook:

Despite the immediate storm threat, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment forecasts a strong recovery for the country’s coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year, projecting an increase of approximately 10% compared to the previous season, reaching 31 million bags. Favorable seasonal rainfall in the Central Highlands supports this expectation after three consecutive seasons of lower output. The harvest for the October 2025 to September 2026 crop year is currently beginning, and flows into export warehouses are expected to increase rapidly as rains subside in the coming weeks.

For the 2025 calendar year, the Ministry expects exports to reach 25 million bags by the end of December, generating a record $8 billion in revenue, a significant increase from $5.65 billion in 2024.

The Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (VICOFA) estimates that the coffee export value for the 2024-2025 crop year (October to September) reached $8.4 billion, up 60% compared to the previous year.