Coffee Prices Today, November 4th: Prices Skyrocket on Fears of Storms Affecting Vietnam’s Harvest

Coffee prices today surged across the board, rising sharply by 3.4% to 3.9% on the futures exchanges. The rally is attributed to below-normal rainfall in Brazil and the threat of Typhoon No. 13 (Kalmaegi) to Vietnam’s Robusta coffee crop.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the conclusion of the November 3rd trading session, online Robusta coffee futures prices on the London exchange skyrocketed. The November 2025 contract surged by 3.51% ($159/ton) compared to the previous session, closing at $4,683 per ton. The January 2026 contract jumped 3.37% ($153/ton), reaching $4,693 per ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures also saw strong gains. The December 2025 contract increased sharply by 3.72% (14.6 US cents/lb) from the end of October, settling at 406.65 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract rose 3.88% (14.45 US cents/lb) to 386.7 US cents/lb.

Market Analysis and Price Drivers

According to Barchart and Reuters, coffee prices rallied strongly in the first trading session of the week due to below-normal rainfall in Brazil and the threat of a typhoon to Vietnam’s Robusta crop.

Typhoon No. 13 (Kalmaegi) is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam on Thursday or Friday and could cause damage to the coffee-growing regions.

Meanwhile, the weather forecasting agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest Arabica growing region—the state of Minas Gerais—received only 33.4 mm of rain in the week ending October 31, equivalent to 75% of the historical average. The previous week, this region received only 1% of its normal rainfall.

Declining coffee inventories on the ICE exchange also contributed to supporting prices. As of November 3rd, ICE-monitored Arabica stocks had fallen to a 1.75-year low of 431,481 bags. Robusta inventories also dropped to a 3.5-month low of 6,053 lots.

According to data from the exchange for the week ending October 28, speculators in Robusta coffee increased their net long positions by 454 lots, bringing the total to 13,882 lots.

Vietnam Domestic & Export Situation

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment of Vietnam, agro-forestry-fishery exports in October reached nearly $6 billion, bringing the total 10-month turnover to $58.13 billion, an increase of nearly 13% over the same period last year.

Coffee alone brought in $7.41 billion in 10 months, an increase of nearly 62%, thanks to the highest average export price in many years—reaching $5,653 per ton. The price of Vietnamese coffee has risen sharply due to reduced supply from other major producing countries, while demand has increased in Europe, especially in Germany, Italy, and Spain.

Domestically, prices in Vietnam also surged on November 4, 2025, with the average price reaching 119,000 VND/kg. Prices in key regions were recorded as follows:

• Dak Lak: 119,000 VND/kg (+2,000)
• Lam Dong: 118,200 VND/kg (+2,600)
• Gia Lai: 118,500 VND/kg (+2,000)
• Dak Nong: 119,500 VND/kg (+2,500)

Balancing Factors & Other Origin News

Traders noted that while certified ICE inventories continue to fall—a factor supporting prices—fairly heavy rainfall in Brazil over the past weekend has improved the outlook for the next year’s crop in the world’s largest coffee-producing nation.

According to I & M Smith, the latest weather reports show most of Brazil’s main coffee regions received slightly below-average rainfall in October, while daytime temperatures were mild and favorable for the crop. The forecast for November rainfall is improving, with the São Paulo, Cerrado Mineiro, Sul de Minas, and Zona da Mata regions expected to receive normal rainfall in the coming days.

According to Indonesian government trade data, Robusta coffee exports in September from the island of Sumatra—the country’s top coffee-producing region—reached 666,905 bags. This is an increase of 185,361 bags, or 38.50%, compared to the same period last year.

The cumulative total of Robusta exports for the first 6 months of the 2025-2026 coffee season (from April 2025 to March 2026) reached 3.5 million bags, a 121.31% increase over the same period last year (an increase of 1,940,177 bags). Indonesia’s new 2025-2026 coffee crop—of which about 85% is Robusta and the rest is Arabica—is conservatively estimated to average around 12 million bags.