Coffee Prices Today, Nov 7: Prices Turn Down; What Are the Causes?

Coffee prices went down on both exchanges today, with Robusta falling $156/ton and Arabica losing 16.85 US cents/pound. This decline is partly due to strong coffee exports from Vietnam and the prospect of a larger 2025-2026 crop.

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Global Coffee Market Update

In the November 6th trading session, Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange turned sharply lower.

• The November 2025 contract fell 3.31% ($156/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,544/ton.
• The January 2026 contract fell 3.32% ($156/ton), reaching $4,530/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures fell even more sharply.

• The December 2025 contract was down 4.06% (16.85 US cents/lb) from the previous day, finishing at 396.75 US cents/lb.
• The March 2026 contract fell 3.88% (15.35 US cents/lb), reaching 379.05 US cents/lb.

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Market Analysis

According to Reuters, coffee prices fell sharply in the recent session, with Robusta dropping to a one-week low.

Forecasts for continuous rain in Brazil next week have eased concerns about dryness, negatively impacting Arabica coffee prices.

According to four industry sources speaking to Reuters, global traders are shipping approximately 150,000 60kg bags of Brazilian Arabica to ICE exchange warehouses in Europe—a move that could help replenish reserves and cool prices that are near record highs.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee is under pressure from increased supply from Vietnam. Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) stated on Thursday that coffee exports from January to October 2025 increased by 13.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.31 million tons.

Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated on October 24 that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year will be 10% higher than the previous season if weather conditions remain favorable. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee.

Despite this, traders report that heavy rains are causing some delays in the harvest in Vietnam.

Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall in Vietnam on Thursday, bringing heavy rain to coastal provinces and the Central Highlands.

“It has started raining. If the rain continues, farmers cannot pick coffee, leading to ripe cherries falling to the ground and disrupting the drying process later,” said a trader in Dak Lak province—Vietnam’s coffee production hub.

According to a report by Artis Trading in collaboration with the Coffee Trading Academy (CTA), Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year, which began in October, is forecasted to increase by 9.3% year-on-year, thanks to improved crop care.

This forecast, based on a field survey in the Central Highlands—Vietnam’s key coffee-growing region—shows Robusta production is expected to increase by 8.8%, while Arabica production is set to increase by 19.5% compared to the previous year.

The report stated that high coffee prices have encouraged farmers to invest to increase productivity through more fertilization and irrigation, while favorable off-season weather conditions further helped enhance crop yields.

All surveyed provinces recorded improved results compared to the previous crop cycle, the report added.

However, Artis Trading and CTA declined to disclose specific production figures. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Vietnam’s 2025-2026 coffee production at 31 million bags (60 kg/bag), compared to 29 million bags the previous season.

Recently, heavy rains have caused the start of the harvest to be delayed, but the report emphasized that there has been no significant damage to the coffee cherries or trees. Vietnam is currently the world’s largest Robusta producer and the second-largest coffee exporter globally. In the 2024-2025 season, production decreased due to drought, contributing to the rise in global coffee prices.