Coffee Prices Today, Dec 5: Market Mixed as Robusta Stabilizes Near $4,300/Ton

Coffee prices today (Dec 5) displayed a mixed performance on the London exchange. While the near-term Robusta contract continued its slight decline, deferred contracts rebounded. Traders in Vietnam report that spot prices in the domestic market are easing as fresh beans begin to circulate, though persistent rains are hindering drying processes and raising quality concerns.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the trading session on December 4, the two major exchanges diverged:

• Robusta (London): The January 2026 contract fell slightly by 0.29% ($13/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,302/ton. However, the March 2026 contract reversed the trend, rising 0.47% ($20/ton) to settle at $4,232/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The market saw stronger gains. The December 2025 contract surged 1.71% (6.80 US cents/lb), closing at 410.65 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract increased 1.75% (6.50 US cents/lb) to 378.95 US cents/lb.

Vietnam Market Analysis: Harvest Pressure vs. Quality Risks

According to Reuters and Barchart, Robusta prices remain under pressure due to the harvest outlook in Vietnam, the world’s top producer.

• Harvest Progress: The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reports that production and exports are on track to increase, with 10% of the crop already harvested. Forecasts for drier weather in December are expected to accelerate picking.
• Quality Concerns: Despite the flow of fresh beans lowering spot prices, traders warn that continuous rains are preventing farmers from sun-drying their coffee properly, sparking fears of mold or fermented defects in early arrivals.

Global Supply & Demand Factors

Indonesia (Robusta): Data from Sumatra, the key coffee island of the world’s third-largest Robusta producer, shows exports in October fell by 9% month-on-month and 2.26% year-on-year, tightening regional supply availability.

Brazil (Arabica): Arabica prices initially dipped but rallied late in the session, supported by a strengthening Brazilian real and weather concerns.

• Dry Forecast: Climatempo predicts dry conditions and rising temperatures will persist across Brazil’s key coffee belts through next week.
• Production Upgrade: Conab, Brazil’s supply agency, raised its 2025 crop estimate to 56.5 million bags, marking the third-largest annual production on record despite it being an “off-year” in the biennial cycle. This is up 4.3% year-on-year and higher than the September forecast of 55.2 million bags.
  • Arabica Forecast: Revised up to 35.76 million bags.
  • Robusta Forecast: Revised up to a record 20.77 million bags.

US Demand: Traders report aggressive buying from US roasters following the removal of import tariffs on Brazilian coffee, providing underlying support for Arabica prices despite the larger Brazilian crop forecast.