Coffee Prices Today, Dec 6: Robusta Falls 6% Weekly as Record Brazilian Crop Eases Supply Fears

Coffee prices today (Dec 6) saw futures retreat across both exchanges. Robusta posted a significant weekly loss of 6%, as concerns over structural supply shortages were temporarily mitigated by a revised forecast for record-high Robusta production in Brazil, coupled with less severe damage than anticipated from recent storms in Vietnam.

Global Market Update

At the close of the December 5 trading session, the markets pulled back:

Robusta (London): The market continued its downward trend, registering its fifth consecutive day of losses. The January 2026 contract fell 0.15% ($7/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,295/ton. The March 2026 contract dropped 1.27% ($54/ton), settling at $4,178/ton.
Arabica (New York): The December 2025 contract fell 1.38% (5.70 US cents/lb), closing at 406.25 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract decreased 1.47% (5.65 US cents/lb), settling at 374.85 US cents/lb.

Fundamental Analysis: Record Supply Outweighs Immediate Shortage

Brazil’s Record Robusta Output (The Bearish Shock)

The primary driver of the bearish sentiment for Coffee Prices Today is the revised production outlook in Brazil.

Conab Forecast: The Brazilian supply agency, Conab, raised its total 2025 coffee crop estimate to 56.5 million bags.
Robusta Record: Critically, the forecast for Robusta production was raised to a record high of 20.77 million bags, up from the previous estimate of 20.05 million bags.
Market Impact: This unexpected strength in the Robusta segment, despite being an Arabica “off-year,” significantly eased long-term supply fears that have supported the London contract.

Contradictory Data: The Lingering Supply Shortage

Despite the positive forecast from Conab, the decline in prices was limited by hard data indicating immediate tightness:

Brazil Export Drop: Brazil’s green coffee exports in November reached 212,150 tons, a sharp 25.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. This shows that while the next crop might be large, current availability is low.
ICE Inventory Split: While Arabica stocks recovered slightly to 426,523 bags on Friday (up from a 1.75-year low), Robusta stocks on ICE hit a severe 11.25-month low of 4,049 lots. This divergence indicates that physical demand for prompt Robusta is extremely high, supporting the front-month price and preventing a deeper collapse.

Political and Domestic Dynamics Shaping Coffee Prices Today

The Tariff Context: Lula and Soluble Coffee

The political certainty around the US market is also driving price direction. President Lula of Brazil welcomed the US’s recent decision to remove some tariffs on Brazilian food, and he stated his expectation for further tariff cuts on items like soluble coffee. This political movement suggests that the US market may fully normalize its trade relationship with Brazil, which is a bearish factor for alternative origins like Vietnam and Uganda.

Vietnam’s Harvest Pressure Eases

The Robusta market had been supported by typhoon threats in Vietnam. However, initial damage was reported as less severe than feared.

Harvest Resumption: Traders noted that while the harvest was delayed, the return of dry weather allows picking and processing to accelerate.
Damage Estimate: The final damage from the typhoon was considered less severe than initial projections, and the forecast for a 10% increase in the 2025-2026 crop is holding firm. This diminished risk contributes to the current price retreat.

Currency Dynamics

Arabica prices faced pressure as the Brazilian real weakened, hitting a seven-week low against the US dollar. A weaker real encourages Brazilian producers to sell their dollar-denominated crops, increasing export supply and pushing prices down.

Conclusion

The dominant trend in Coffee Prices Today is a strategic correction, driven by Conab’s strong production forecast for Brazilian Robusta. However, the continued decline is moderated by the strong technical tightness in the physical Robusta market (11.25-month inventory low) and the persistent political volatility surrounding US trade policy. The short-term movement suggests that supply concerns are easing, but the structurally tight balance of the Robusta market remains fragile.

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