Coffee Prices Today, Dec 11: Mixed Signals as Vietnam’s Harvest Shows Resilience

Coffee prices today (Dec 11) continued to display a divergent trend. Arabica futures rallied by 1.7%, while Robusta saw losses in the near term but gains in deferred contracts. Despite harvest delays caused by rain and labor shortages, the outlook for Vietnam’s crop remains optimistic, with expectations of improved output and quality.

Global Market Update: Arabica Surges, Robusta Mixed

At the close of trading on December 10, the markets moved in opposing directions:

• Robusta (London): The January 2026 contract dipped slightly by 0.16% ($7/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,221/ton. However, the March 2026 contract maintained its upward momentum, rising 0.71% ($29/ton) to settle at $4,138/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The market posted strong gains. The December 2025 contract climbed 1.67% (6.60 US cents/lb), closing at 400.80 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract increased 0.96% (3.55 US cents/lb) to 372.30 US cents/lb.

Vietnam Market: Resilience Amidst Challenges

Despite logistical hurdles, Vietnam’s coffee sector is showing strong fundamentals.

• Harvest Outlook: Traders report that while rain and labor shortages have caused delays, the crop’s prospects remain positive. “Vietnam’s coffee harvest is showing remarkable resilience,” a trader told Reuters. “Production is expected to increase, and quality indicators are trending upwards”.
• Export Boom: Data from the General Department of Customs reveals a surge in trade. Exports in November reached 1.47 million bags, a 39.1% year-on-year increase.
• Season-to-Date: Total exports for the first two months of the 2025-2026 crop year hit 2.63 million bags, up 51.9% compared to the same period last year.

Brazil Market: Export Decline and Production Revisions

Arabica prices found support from tightening supply data out of Brazil, despite favorable long-term weather.

• Export Drop: Cecafe reported a 27% year-on-year decline in green coffee exports for November, citing limited production, port congestion, and the impact of US tariffs.
• USDA Production Cut: The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service revised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025-2026 crop downwards by 2 million bags.
  • Total Estimate: Now pegged at 63 million bags (down from 65 million in 24/25).
  • Arabica: Forecast to fall 13.6% to 38 million bags.
  • Robusta: Conversely, Robusta production is estimated to surge 19% to a record 25 million bags.
• Export Forecast: Brazil’s 2025-2026 exports are predicted to fall 2.4% to 40.75 million bags, though high prices may still drive record revenue.

Global Supply & Inventory Data

• ICO Report: Global coffee exports in October reached 11.16 million bags, a slight increase from 11.09 million bags last year.
  • Arabica Trend: 12-month exports fell to 83.97 million bags.
  • Robusta Trend: 12-month exports rose to 55.29 million bags.
• Inventory Levels:
  • Arabica: ICE-monitored stocks recovered to a 1-month high of 426,523 bags last Friday, up from a 1.75-year low in November.
  • Robusta: Stocks tightened further, hitting an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots as of Dec 10.