Coffee Prices Today, Dec 27: Arabica Rallies as Brazil Heatwave and Indonesia Floods Ignite Supply Fears

Coffee prices today (December 27, 2025) have shifted into positive territory, with Arabica rebounding sharply after a series of consecutive declines. The primary catalyst for this reversal is a growing concern over intense heatwaves in Brazil, which threaten the fruit-setting stage for the 2026 crop, alongside significant supply disruptions in Southeast Asia.

World Coffee Market Update

New York Exchange (Arabica)

In the latest session, New York Arabica futures turned higher across all major contracts:

March 2026 Delivery: Rebounded by 0.94% (up 3.25 US cents/lb), reaching 348.4 US cents/lb.
May 2026 Delivery: Increased by 0.66% (up 2.2 US cents/lb) to settle at 333.05 US cents/lb.

Brazil Market (Arabica)

Internal futures in Brazil also reflected the bullish sentiment driven by local climate risks:

March 2026 Contract: Reached 425.5 US cents/lb, a modest gain of 0.25%.
May 2026 Contract: Surged by 2.28% (up 9.4 US cents/lb) to hit 431.35 US cents/lb.

London Exchange (Robusta)

While the London exchange remained closed for the holiday, the market carries significant momentum from earlier in the week.

March 2026 Contract: Previously closed at 4,012 USD/ton (up 6.2% for the week).
May 2026 Contract: Previously closed at 3,858 USD/ton (up 5.2% for the week).

Strategic Supply Analysis: Brazil and Indonesia Under Pressure

Climate Risks in Brazil

According to Barchart, the rebound in Arabica is largely technical and fundamental, as meteorologists forecast a severe heatwave across Brazil’s core coffee-producing regions through next Monday. This spike in temperature, combined with a recent lack of adequate rainfall, is expected to hinder the development of the 2026 crop, potentially leading to significant yield losses for the next season.

Indonesian Supply Disruption

Further support for global prices comes from Indonesia, where widespread flooding has severely impacted production.

Export Forecast: The President of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries indicates that total exports could drop by up to 15% for the 2025-2026 season.
Regional Impact: Floods have affected approximately one-third of North Sumatra’s Arabica acreage. While Robusta—the variety most sought after by a Vietnamese green coffee beans supplier—has been less impacted, the overall reduction in Indonesian volume is tightening the global balance.

Brazil Export Performance Data (December)

Data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) highlights a slowdown in Brazilian exports during the first 15 working days of December:

Processed Coffee: Daily average export volume for roasted, extract, and essence coffee dropped 19.2% compared to December 2024 (393 tons vs. 487 tons).
Green Coffee: Daily average exports of unroasted coffee stood at 9,598 tons, down 0.1% from the previous year’s December average. Total unroasted exports for the first three weeks of the month hit 143,969 tons, lagging behind the 201,848 tons recorded in the full month of December 2024.

As global volatility continues to impact Wholesale coffee beans pricing models, roasters must move from reactive purchasing to proactive strategic management. The current climate and logistical crises in Brazil and Indonesia underscore the importance of securing a reliable supply chain well in advance.

Would you like me to help you draft a formal annual procurement strategy or a budget forecast to stabilize your costs against these rising supply risks?

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