Coffee Prices Today, Dec 31: Robusta Extends Bullish Run as Arabica Adjusts Lower

Coffee prices today (December 31, 2025) exhibited a divergent trend. Robusta futures continued their upward trajectory for another session, while Arabica prices retreated following recent gains. The market is currently characterized by stable consumption demand and low certified inventories, providing a structural foundation for price recovery in the near term.

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Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the trading session on December 30, the performance across major exchanges was as follows:

• Robusta (London):
  • January 2026 Delivery: Rose by 1.82% ($73/ton), reaching $4,092/ton.
  • March 2026 Delivery: Increased by 1.57% ($61/ton) to settle at $3,945/ton.
• Arabica (New York):
  • March 2025 Delivery: Declined by 0.55% (1.95 US cents/lb), closing at 350.2 US cents/lb.
  • May 2026 Delivery: Dropped by 0.55% (1.85 US cents/lb), reaching 335.05 US cents/lb.

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Supply and Inventory Dynamics

Traders indicate that the market remains supported by critically low certified inventory levels. On the ICE exchange, certified Arabica stocks stood at 456,477 bags as of December 29. While this represents a recent improvement, it remains a sharp decline from the 991,080 bags recorded during the same period last year.

Furthermore, the high price premium of the March contract over the May contract reinforces the sentiment that prompt supply is exceedingly tight. Reports from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) confirm that Robusta supply from key producers—including Vietnamese green coffee beans supplier networks and Indonesia—has not yet shown signs of a significant increase.

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Regional Weather Watch

Supply chain analysts are closely monitoring weather patterns in the three most critical producing regions:

• Brazil: In the state of Minas Gerais, rainfall remains significantly below the seasonal average. However, weather models suggest that rain may return in the latter half of this week and persist into the next, which could provide relief to Arabica crops.
• Indonesia: The situation in North Sumatra is increasingly concerning. Saturated soil conditions have left coffee-growing regions highly vulnerable to flooding during moderate to heavy rainfall, potentially affecting both harvest progress and bean quality.
• Vietnam: In contrast, dry and sunny conditions have prevailed across the Central Highlands throughout the weekend, facilitating efficient harvesting and sun-drying activities. This favorable weather is expected to continue through the current week.

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2025: A Year of Unprecedented Volatility

As the year draws to a close, coffee prices have recorded a total gain of nearly 10% in 2025. This year stands out as one of the most complex and volatile periods in recent history, driven by:

• Erratic global weather patterns.
• Sustained low inventory levels.
• Production risks in leading origins like Brazil.
• The 50% U.S. tariff imposed on coffee imports from Brazil.

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Vietnam Domestic Market Outlook

In late December 2025, Vietnam entered the final phase of its coffee harvest. Consequently, the volume of coffee entering the market has begun to contract compared to the start of the season. Although domestic Robusta prices are currently following global trends, the Import-Export Department predicts that as the harvest concludes and domestic supply narrows, local prices will see further support for recovery.

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Strategic Next Step for Your Business

As we move into the first quarter of 2026 with tightened supply and high volatility, the most effective way to stabilize your margins is through proactive forecasting.

Would you like me to assist you with “Annual planning with your coffee supplier” to help secure your 2026 inventory positions?