Coffee Prices on July 25: Continue Rising as Vietnamese Farmers Hold Back Sales

Global coffee prices rose again on July 25, extending a multi-day rally driven by supply-side hesitation — especially from Vietnam, the world’s top producer of Robusta coffee. The reluctance to sell has been triggered by a recent price dip, prompting farmers to hold back their stock in anticipation of higher returns.

Global Coffee Price Update

Robusta Futures – London Exchange

Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange climbed for the third consecutive session, rebounding from a 16-month low seen earlier this week. The September 2025 contract closed at $3,349/ton, marking a 1.48% increase (+$49/ton) from the previous day. The November 2025 contract also rose by 1.38% (+$45/ton), reaching $3,304/ton.

Arabica Futures – New York Exchange

On the New York ICE, Arabica futures continued their upward momentum. The September 2025 contract increased by 1.16% (+3.5 cents/pound), reaching 304.85 US cents/pound. The November 2025 contract followed with a 1.09% gain (+3.2 cents/pound) to 297 US cents/pound.

Why Are Prices Rising?

According to Reuters, the latest price gains are linked to reduced selling activity among Vietnamese farmers. A trader from Dak Lak, Vietnam’s largest coffee-producing province, said:

“Farmers are holding their stock, waiting for the price to exceed at least 100,000 VND/kg.”

Despite a globally abundant supply fueled by fresh harvests in Brazil and Indonesia, the market is currently reacting more to short-term supply constraints than surplus.

Stockpile and Certification Update

• Robusta inventories under ICE supervision climbed to a 12-month high with 6,519 lots recorded on July 24.
• Arabica inventories certified by ICE continued to decline, hitting a three-month low of 806,062 bags.
• Only 14,000 bags of Arabica remain under review for ICE certification.

Geopolitical & Trade Pressures

Further uncertainty stems from trade tensions between Brazil and the United States. Although Brazil has reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing trade negotiations, a resolution before August 1 remains unlikely. That date is when the U.S. is set to impose a 50% import tariff on nearly all Brazilian imports — including green coffee.

Currently, U.S. roasters are rushing to secure supplies while the tariff rate remains at 10%. Brazil, which is in the peak of its harvest, supplies about one-third of the 23 million bags of coffee the U.S. imports annually. Without viable alternative sources, the U.S. coffee industry is left with few options, making price drops at the consumer level unlikely.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has reached a tariff agreement with Indonesia, setting a 19% import duty on coffee and other goods. Though considered moderate, this new tariff still affects coffee exports from the island nation.

Outlook

With Robusta farmers in Vietnam limiting supply and Brazilian Arabica potentially subject to steep U.S. tariffs, the coffee market remains volatile. Price movements in the coming weeks will likely hinge on weather developments in Brazil, trade negotiations with the U.S., and harvesting outcomes in top-producing countries.