Coffee Price Today, August 5: Robusta Surges Above US$3,400/ton on Brazil Drought and Strengthening Real

Coffee markets turned positive on August 5, with coffee price today showing strong gains—Robusta climbed to its highest level in two weeks, supported by drought concerns in Brazil and a strengthening Brazilian real. Meanwhile, Arabica futures also rebounded modestly. Separately, Vietnam’s coffee export earnings reached a record USD 6 billion in the first seven months of 2025, up 65% year-on-year.

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Global Price Update: London and New York

London Robusta Futures

• September 2025 contract closed at US$3,421/ton, up 2.73% (+US$91/ton).
• November 2025 contract rose 2.42% (+US$79), reaching US$3,338/ton.

New York Arabica Futures

• September 2025 contract climbed 1.53% (+4.35 US cents/lb) to 288.55 US cents/lb.
• December 2025 contract gained 1.48% (+4.10 US cents) to reach 281.65 US cents/lb.

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Market Drivers Behind the Price Movement

According to Barchart and Reuters, the coffee price today has rebounded sharply due to:

• Drought Conditions in Brazil: Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s main Arabica region—received only 2.7 mm of rain for the week ending August 2, which is just 31% of historical averages, prompting investor repositioning in futures contracts.
• Stronger Brazilian Real: The real recently hit a 3.5-week high versus the U.S. dollar, reducing incentives for Brazilian exporters to sell, thereby tightening supply sentiment.
• Short Covering in Robusta Futures: Commercial traders liquidated short positions, amplifying the upward move in Robusta, which had previously been oversold. ICE Futures Europe data showed net short positions increased by 1,226 lots, totaling 5,854 lots—the largest short exposure in two years.
• Arabica Recovery: Arabica bounced back after hitting its lowest level since mid-November 2024 earlier in the week. Reports noted Brazilian President Lula is open to trade talks with the U.S., fueling speculation that U.S. tariff threats may ease.

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Vietnam’s Coffee Export Performance

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, coffee became Vietnam’s top export commodity in July 2025:

• July volumes reached 110,000 tons, earning US$592.7 million, up 43.6% and 55.5% respectively year‑on‑year.
• Cumulative exports for Jan–Jul 2025 totaled 1.1 million tons, bringing in US$6 billion, representing increases of 7.6% (volume) and 65.1% (value) compared to the same period in 2024.
• This export revenue already exceeds the US$5.6 billion recorded for the full calendar year 2024—driven largely by a 53.4% surge in average prices (now US$5,672/ton).

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Inventory Context

• ICE-monitored Robusta stocks remain at a 12-month peak of 7,029 lots.
• In contrast, Arabica inventories fell to a 5.5-month low, totaling 760,529 bags as of August 4.

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Summary

• Coffee price today reflects diverging trajectories: Robusta surges on weather and currency concerns, while Arabica shows cautious recovery after prior lows.
• Brazil’s drought and currency dynamics are key bullish factors for Robusta, while mild rainfall and macro developments provided some relief for Arabica.
• Strong export performance from Vietnam underscores global resilience even amid market volatility.