Coffee Prices Today, August 26: Arabica Slips Slightly While Robusta Pauses for Holiday

On a day when the London exchange was closed for a public holiday, arabica coffee prices in New York edged lower. The market, however, remains supported by shrinking certified ICE inventories and expectations of a smaller arabica crop in Brazil than initially forecast.

Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on August 25:

• New York Arabica:
  • September 2025 contract fell 0.18% (-0.7 cents), to 389.95 US cents/lb.
  • December 2025 contract dropped 0.15% (-0.55 cents), to 377.75 US cents/lb.
• London Robusta:
  • No trading took place due to the UK bank holiday.
  • At the prior week’s close, the September 2025 contract stood at US $4,758/ton—a 3-month high, while the November 2025 contract settled at US $4,650/ton.

Arabica prices retreated slightly from a 3.5-month high, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar that triggered profit-taking and liquidation of long positions.

Market Support Factors

Despite the dip, fundamentals remain firm:

• ICE Certified Stocks:
  Arabica inventories monitored by ICE dropped below 730,000 bags as of August 23—hovering near a one-year low—with only 11,000 bags pending certification.
  Robusta stocks also fell to a 4-week low at 6,642 lots.
• Brazil’s Crop Outlook:
  Coffee broker Carvalhaes noted: “Prices are rising as the market realizes Brazil’s crop is smaller than expected.” On Monday, StoneX downgraded its projection for Brazil’s 2025–2026 arabica crop to 36.5 million 60-kg bags, a sharp 18.4% decline from the 44.7 million bags harvested in 2024–2025—already below prior estimates.
  Earlier, StoneX had projected 38.7 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle. The firm highlighted that since 2020, Brazil’s coffee production has repeatedly faced climatic challenges, hurting both current yields and future output potential—a trend persisting into the upcoming crop, particularly for arabica.

Weather and Climatic Concerns

According to Brazil’s weather agency Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais—the country’s largest arabica-producing state—recorded no rainfall during the week ending August 23.

Reports of frost damage to part of Brazil’s coffee trees earlier this year have also fueled concerns about the upcoming harvest, reinforcing upward pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations.