Coffee Prices Today, August 27: Robusta Holds Uptrend, Arabica Declines Again

Coffee prices continued to move in opposite directions on Tuesday, with robusta extending gains while arabica fell for the second straight session. The market is undergoing a technical correction after becoming overbought following the recent sharp rally.

Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on August 26:

London Robusta:
- September 2025 contract rose 0.41% (+$20), to $4,886/ton.
- November 2025 contract added 0.88% (+$40), reaching $4,690/ton.
New York Arabica:
- September 2025 contract fell 1.51% (-5.9 cents), to 384.05 US cents/lb.
- December 2025 contract dropped 1.44% (-5.45 cents), to 372.3 US cents/lb.

Arabica futures have now retreated for two consecutive sessions after touching a 3.5-month high, pressured by technical selling and profit-taking.

Market Commentary

A U.S. trader commented:

“Given the pent-up buying demand, especially from roasters, any correction is likely to be limited and short-lived.”

Still, arabica remains under pressure from Brazil’s harvest progress:

Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported that as of August 22, members had harvested 91.3% of their crop. This is up from 86.1% the previous week but below 95.4% at the same time last year.
Market consultancy Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil’s 2025–2026 coffee harvest was 99% complete as of August 20—slightly ahead of last year’s 98%. That includes 100% of the robusta crop and 98% of arabica.

Factors Supporting Prices

Falling ICE Certified Stocks:
The recent rally has been partly fueled by tightening inventories, as U.S. roasters seek alternatives following the 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian coffee imports.
Weather Concerns in Brazil:
Traders note that September rainfall will be critical for next year’s arabica crop outlook in Brazil, already strained by dry conditions and cold snaps earlier this season.
Production Outlook:
In its latest forecast, StoneX projected Brazil’s 2025–2026 arabica crop at just 36.5 million 60-kg bags—an 18.4% decline from the prior season.
In contrast, Brazil’s irrigated conilon robusta crop is performing better, helping offset some of the supply deficit.

Industry Perspectives

According to Vanusia Nogueira, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO):

The combination of U.S. tariffs, climate change, and reduced Brazilian output is pushing coffee prices higher.
Even with rising prices, volatility remains due to strong consumption demand and declining stockpiles.
Global coffee supply faces ongoing structural deficits after years of adverse weather in key growing regions.

She added:

“We don’t know when Brazil’s harvest will return to normal. Every year we are seeing extreme weather events.”

Adding further uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs of 10% to 50% on coffee imports from producing nations are also shaking market sentiment.

Despite these challenges, demand remains resilient.