Coffee Prices Today, August 30: Rally Resumes as Speculators Drive Buying

Coffee prices rebounded today, with Rabobank noting that although the rally may have slowed, the possibility of further short-term gains cannot be ruled out. Speculative activity continues to play a major role amid low inventory levels and limited market liquidity.

Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on August 29:

• On the London exchange, robusta coffee futures for September 2025 settled at USD 5,001/ton, down 0.14% (USD 7/ton) compared to the previous session. Meanwhile, November 2025 contracts edged up 0.15% (USD 7/ton) to USD 4,815/ton.
• On the New York exchange, arabica coffee futures gained more strongly. The September 2025 contract rose 2.35% (9.1 US cents/pound) to 396.85 US cents/pound, while December 2025 climbed 2.28% (8.6 US cents/pound) to 386.1 US cents/pound.

According to Reuters, arabica futures moved higher on Friday, nearing a 3.5-month peak set earlier in the week, supported by global trade disruptions following the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports.

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Speculative Activity Supports Price Gains

Arabica prices rose 2% this week and have jumped 34% over the past four weeks. The surge has been fueled by speculative buying, especially as U.S. roasters scramble for supply amid falling exchange inventories.

Rabobank commented:

“Although the pace of price gains in both robusta and arabica may have slowed, the potential for further increases in the short term cannot be dismissed. Speculative activity remains influential in an environment of low stocks and tight liquidity.”

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Production Outlook in Brazil and Vietnam

Despite the bullish momentum, many market participants expect prices could ease toward the end of the year if production outlooks in Brazil and Vietnam improve.

• Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado projects the country’s 2025/26 harvest at 63.35 million 60-kg bags, down 3.3% from its previous forecast of 65.51 million bags.
• Similarly, StoneX recently forecast Brazilian output at 62.3 million bags for 2025/26, a 5.46% decline year-on-year, with arabica production expected to drop 18.4% to about 36.5 million bags.

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Supply Concerns and Weather Conditions

According to Barchart, prices have surged over the past four weeks due to concerns about tightening supply and unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil.

• ICE-monitored robusta stocks fell to a one-month low of 6,552 bags as of August 28.
• ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 15-month low of 710,196 bags as of August 29.

Adding to supply worries, Brazil’s meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received no rainfall during the week ending August 23. Reports of frost damage in several coffee-growing areas in recent weeks have also provided upward pressure on prices.

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Outlook

While speculative buying and weather-related risks continue to drive prices higher in the short term, the market remains sensitive to production updates from Brazil and Vietnam. Any confirmation of improved crop prospects could cool the rally, but until then, limited inventories and tariff-related disruptions are likely to sustain volatility in global coffee markets.