Annual Planning with Your Coffee Supplier: Navigating the 18% Price Correction in Vietnam

The current 18% price drop in Vietnam must be viewed through a macro lens. While local prices have softened, the end-of-2025 closing figures on global exchanges show a divided market. Robusta on the London exchange (January 2026 contract) closed at $4,109/ton, a 14.5% decline compared to the end of 2024. Conversely, New York Arabica (March 2025 contract) stood at 348.75 US cent/lb, an increase of approximately 9%.

This divergence—falling Robusta and rising Arabica—creates a complex environment for Annual planning with your coffee supplier.

1. Analyzing the Robusta “Dip”

The 18% price reduction in Vietnam is largely a function of harvest pressure and a market correcting itself after the extreme peaks of 2024 and 2025. During those years, prices reached multi-decade highs, driven by acute shortages.

The Buyer’s Perspective: While the “sticker price” is lower than last year, it remains significantly higher than the historical averages of 2021-2022.
The Planning Move: Use this correction to lock in your “core” volume. A Vietnamese green coffee beans supplier is more likely to negotiate favorable fixed-price contracts or more stable “basis” (differential) agreements when the local market is in a downward trend.

2. The Arabica Pressure

With Arabica prices still trending upward due to supply constraints in Latin America—caused by drought, excessive rain, and irregular flowering cycles—roasters are increasingly turning to high-quality Robusta to balance their blends.

The Planning Move: If your 2026 strategy involves maintaining price points for consumers, your annual plan must include a higher percentage of “Fine Robusta” or “Polished Robusta” to offset the high cost of Arabica.

The New Normal: Why Annual Planning with Your Coffee Supplier Must Address Structural Supply Vulnerability

International commodity experts, including William Peberdy, argue that the most underestimated factor in today’s market is the long-term decline in production potential within traditional growing regions. Even as we see a projected 2.5% recovery in global output for the 2025-2026 season, the market remains “structurally vulnerable”.

3. Understanding the “Vulnerability Phase”

We have entered a prolonged period of vulnerability where stability no longer depends on a single successful harvest. Instead, it depends on the industry’s ability to adapt through:

Developing new, climate-resilient varieties.
Expanding production to higher altitudes.
Investing in sustainable, anti-fragile farming systems.

4. Consumption at Record Highs

Despite higher prices, global consumption is expected to reach a record 169–170 million bags in the 2025-2026 season. This growth is fueled by two distinct engines:

The Asian Middle Class: Rapidly expanding demand in emerging markets.
Developed Market Premiumization: Consumers in the West are increasingly opting for “Specialty” and “High-end” products, even at higher price points.

When conducting annual planning with your coffee supplier, you must account for this “Consumption Floor.” Demand is no longer elastic; even if prices stay high, consumers are not stopping their coffee intake, they are simply becoming more selective about origin and ethics.

The Traceability Imperative: A Professional Standard for 2026

In 2026, the importance of full traceability across the entire supply chain will be codified as a professional standard. Transparency regarding origin is no longer an “extra” for the specialty segment; it is a requirement for the mass market.

5. Moving Toward “Direct-to-Processor” Relationships

To meet these traceability standards, the market is shifting toward long-term supply relationships. Importers and producers are moving away from spot-buying and toward collaborative models that ensure:

Compliance with EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation): Ensuring no beans come from deforested land.
Price Protection: Sharing the risk of weather shocks.
Local Professionalization: Investing in on-site processing and national brand development at the origin.

Expert Insight: “Production potential in traditional regions is in a state of chronic decline,” notes William Peberdy. “Any minor weather abnormality can now trigger violent price swings because the global ‘buffer’ of inventory has been depleted”.

The 2026 Strategic Procurement Checklist

When sitting down for your annual planning with your coffee supplier, use the following checklist to ensure you are not just buying beans, but securing a partnership.

Phase 1: Volume & Quality Projections

[ ] GBE Calculation: Calculate your Green Bean Equivalent (GBE) needs for the next 12 months, adding a 15% buffer for potential logistics delays.
[ ] Origin Mix: Based on current Arabica prices, determine if you need to increase your Robusta ratio for 2026 blends.
[ ] Specification Audit: Review the physical specs (moisture, screen size, defect count) from the 2025 shipments. Use the “18% correction” window to negotiate tighter specs for the same price.

Phase 2: Logistics & Compliance

[ ] EUDR Verification: Ensure your Vietnamese green coffee beans supplier has the geolocation data ready for every lot.
[ ] Tet Holiday Window: For Vietnam, plan all February shipments in early January. The Lunar New Year shutdown can paralyze the Central Highlands’ logistics for two weeks.
[ ] Stock-and-Release: Negotiate a “Stock-and-Release” agreement where the supplier holds parchment at origin and mills it only before shipping to ensure maximum freshness.

Phase 3: Financial Risk Management

[ ] Pricing Model: Decide between “Fixed Price” (securing the current 18% dip) or “Differential” (floating with the London/NY market).
[ ] Currency Hedge: With the USD/VND exchange rate currently at approximately 26,141, analyze how currency fluctuations will affect your landed cost.

Red Flags to Watch for in 2026

As the market professionalizes, certain “old school” trading habits become major risks. Watch for these signs during your annual planning with your coffee supplier:

Lack of Geolocation Data: If a supplier cannot provide the exact coordinates of the farm clusters, they are likely aggregating from middle-market “collectors,” making them non-compliant with 2026 traceability standards.
Unusually Low Prices: If a price is significantly lower than the current 97,500 – 98,300 VND/kg range in Vietnam, be suspicious of “Quality Fade”—old crop beans being blended with the new harvest.
Refusal of Long-Term Contracts: Suppliers who only want to sell “Spot” (immediate delivery) are often gambling on the market going back up. A professional partner should be willing to sign a 6-12 month volume commitment.

Summary of the 2026 Outlook

The 18% price correction in Vietnam provides a strategic opening for roasters to stabilize their supply chains after two years of extreme volatility. However, the macro-environment remains fragile. Global consumption is hitting record levels, and structural climate shifts mean that the days of “cheap, unlimited coffee” are likely over.

The goal of annual planning with your coffee supplier in 2026 is to build a “Sustainable Bridge” between the farm and the roaster. By leveraging the current local price dip to secure long-term, transparent, and professionalized agreements, you protect your brand from the next inevitable weather shock.

To execute this plan effectively, you must understand the underlying math of the trade—specifically, how volume affects your per-pound cost and which financial instruments can protect your “Basis.”

Would you like me to analyze the various “Wholesale coffee beans pricing models” to help you choose the best financial structure for your 2026 contracts?

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