Brazil’s Arabica Coffee Production Forecast to Drop Sharply

Consulting firm StoneX has forecast Brazil’s coffee output for the 2025–2026 crop year at 62.3 million bags, down 5.46% from the previous season. The decline is driven mainly by a sharp fall in arabica production, which is expected to drop 18.4% to around 36.5 million bags.

According to StoneX, Brazil’s arabica harvest for the 2025–2026 season (July 2025 to June 2026) will fall from 44.7 million bags in 2024–2025 to just 36.5 million bags, marking another disappointing arabica crop after yields already underperformed expectations last season.

The firm had earlier projected arabica production at 38.7 million bags, but the revised outlook reflects worsening conditions.

This development is expected to add further upward pressure on global coffee prices, which are already reacting to the 50% U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee, Reuters reported.

“Since 2020, Brazil’s coffee production has faced continuous climate challenges, directly impacting harvest yields and production potential. The same scenario is unfolding once again in 2025–2026, with arabica being hit the hardest,” StoneX noted in its research report.

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Robusta Outlook

In contrast, robusta production is projected at 25.8 million bags, unchanged from the previous forecast and up 21.9% compared with the 21.2 million bags harvested in 2024–2025.

Among robusta-growing regions, only Rondônia state is expected to see a production decline in 2025–2026.

With these adjustments, Brazil’s total coffee output is now estimated at 62.3 million bags for 2025–2026, representing a 3.4% decrease from StoneX’s earlier forecast and 5.46% lower than last season.

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Longer-Term Prospects

Despite recent years of weather-related setbacks, prospects for the 2026–2027 crop year appear more optimistic. Rainfall between November 2024 and March 2025 helped restore plant health and preserve production potential.

“Rains during months that are usually cold and dry, combined with a clearer seasonal pattern, have supported crop conditions and sustained the plants’ productive capacity,” StoneX highlighted.

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Market Impact

Global coffee prices have been climbing steadily since early August.

• London Robusta Futures (August 28 close):
  • September 2025 contract: $5,008/ton, up 47.3% (+$1,607) since early August.
  • November 2025 contract: $4,808/ton, up 44.3% (+$1,477) in the same period.
• New York Arabica Futures:
  • September 2025 contract: 387.75 US cents/lb, up 31.1% (+92 cents) over the past month.
  • December 2025 contract: 377.5 US cents/lb, up 30.8% (+89 cents).