Coffee Price Today, August 6: Arabica Surges as U.S.–Brazil Tensions Escalate

In the latest coffee price today snapshot, coffee futures diverged sharply—Arabica surged on heightened geopolitical tensions, while Robusta pulled back modestly. The risk of a looming U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee took center stage, boosting Arabica sentiment amid speculation that exemptions are less likely.

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Global Price Update: Robusta vs. Arabica

London Robusta Futures (August 6)

• September 2025 contract closed at US $3,412/ton, down 0.26% (–US $9).
• November 2025 contract rose 0.63% (+US $21), reaching US $3,359/ton.

New York Arabica Futures

• September 2025 contract jumped 3.52% (+10.15 US cents/lb), closing at 298.7 US cents/lb.
• December 2025 contract gained 3.28% (+9.25 US cents), settling at 290.9 US cents/lb.

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Market Drivers: Geopolitical Strain and Policy Risk

According to Reuters:

• Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Brazil have weakened the likelihood of any Doha‑style exemption for Brazilian coffee from a 50% U.S. tariff set to take effect on August 6.
• In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro was placed under house arrest by the Supreme Court—a move U.S. President Trump characterized as a politically motivated “witch hunt,” justifying strong trade measures.

Brazil maintains it can redirect coffee and beef exports away from the U.S. if tariffs are imposed. Meanwhile, China has approved 183 Brazilian coffee exporters, helping offset disruptions, though traders remain skeptical that Chinese demand can fully substitute the U.S. market, which consumes about one-third of Brazil’s coffee output.

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Structural Trends Supporting Arabica Amid Tightening Supply

• ICE Arabica stocks dropped to a 14.5-month low—just 754,516 bags as of Tuesday, supporting Arabica prices.
• Brazil’s harvest: Cooxupé reports 74% completion of 2025 crop as of August 1—up 10.6 points from the prior week.
• Safras & Mercado confirmed Brazil reached 90% harvest completion by July 30, with 98% of Robusta and 85% of Arabica already collected.

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Climate Outlook: Relief or Pressure?

While Brazil’s conditions are tightening, a forecasted rainfall across Vietnamese coffee-growing areas is currently weighing on Robusta, as wetter weather may boost Vietnamese output and dampen upward price momentum.

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Summary: Key Takeaways on Coffee Price Today

• Arabica prices surged on market fears that a U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee is increasingly likely.
• Robusta prices were mixed, reflecting improved weather projections in Vietnam.
• A likely U.S. December 4 or negotiated outcome remains uncertain, fueling short-term volatility.
• Shrinking ICE-monitored Arabica stocks reinforce tight supply conditions for future contracts.