Coffee Prices Today 1/10: Slight Increase Amidst Low Inventory and Vietnam Crop Concerns

Coffee prices rebounded strongly on both exchanges today as inventories continued their downward trend, hitting multi-month lows. In Vietnam, Typhoon Bualoi is expected to cause flooding on some farms and roads, preventing farmers from reaching their fields.

World Coffee Price Update

At the close of the trading session on September 30, prices for both Robusta and Arabica coffee saw an increase.

Robusta – London On the London exchange, the price for Robusta futures for November 2025 delivery reached $4,200/ton, a slight increase of 0.33% ($14/ton) compared to the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rose by 0.29% ($12/ton) to $4,186/ton.

Term	Match Price	Change	Highest	Lowest
11/25	4200	+14 (0.33%)	4286	4176
01/26	4186	+12 (0.29%)	4270	4160
03/26	4143	+17 (0.41%)	4223	4119
05/26	4109	+23 (0.56%)	4180	4101
07/26	4080	+27 (0.67%)	4137	4072

Arabica – New York On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for December 2025 delivery also increased by 0.71% (2.65 US cents/pound) from the prior session, reaching 374.85 US cents/pound. The contract for March 2026 delivery climbed 0.96% (3.4 US cents/pound) to 358.95 US cents/pound.

Term	Match Price	Change	Highest	Lowest
12/25	374.85	+2.65 (0.71%)	380.70	370.50
03/26	358.95	+3.40 (0.96%)	363.20	353.40
05/26	347.45	+3.80 (1.11%)	351.25	341.40
07/26	336.40	+4.05 (1.22%)	339.80	329.95
09/26	324.80	+4.05 (1.26%)	327.50	318.30

According to Barchart, coffee prices closed higher in the most recent session due to declining exchange inventories and concerns about the coffee crop in Vietnam.

The 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on coffee imported from Brazil has caused ICE-monitored Arabica coffee inventories to fall to a 1.5-year low, standing at 571,754 bags as of September 30. ICE-monitored Robusta coffee inventories also dropped to a 2-month low of 6,464 lots on September 19.

Robusta coffee prices were also supported by weather concerns in Vietnam. In the coming days, heavy rain is forecast in Vietnam due to the impact of Typhoon Bualoi, which is expected to flood some farms and roads, making it impossible for farmers to work.

Comunicaffe quoted Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at StoneX, stating that global coffee inventories have decreased by 22 million bags over the past four years.

Meanwhile, Marcelo Moreira, an analyst at Archer Consulting, noted that the market is in a fragile state of equilibrium and any future supply drop, no matter how small, is making traders anxious.

Mr. Moreira explained: “In a conversation this week with one of the largest cooperatives, the picture painted was as follows: a drop in Arabica production of around 10-15% (some producers reported declines of over 30%), while initial inventories are among the lowest in recent years.”

In August, U.S. retail coffee prices increased by 20.9% year-over-year and 3.6% from the previous month. This marks the highest increase recorded in the data series, which dates back to July 2011, surpassing even the 20.3% rise seen in July 2022 amidst COVID-related inflation.

Detailed data shows that the average price of roasted coffee rose by 21.7% year-over-year and 4.1% compared to July. Meanwhile, the price of instant coffee increased by 20.1% and 4.9%, respectively.

This trend stems from persistently high raw material costs, coupled with price increases in other expense categories. From September onwards, the full impact of the 50% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on coffee imported from Brazil — the largest coffee supplier to the U.S., exporting about 8 million bags annually — will begin to be strongly felt.

Last week, news of a potential meeting between Mr. Trump and Brazilian President Lula sparked hopes of a tariff agreement, but the path ahead remains challenging.

The market is awaiting the anticipated meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, although no specific date has been announced. The meeting is expected to address the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which has restricted trade between the two countries.