Coffee Prices Today: Arabica Rebounds While Robusta Faces Divergence

Coffee prices today reflected mixed dynamics in global trading sessions, with arabica futures showing a strong rebound while robusta futures recorded a slight decline in near-term contracts. This divergence highlights the complex interplay between weather developments in Brazil, currency fluctuations, and U.S. trade policies impacting the coffee market.

On September 18 trading closed with:

• Robusta coffee futures in London for November 2025 slightly down by 0.07% (-3 USD), settling at 4,447 USD/ton. In contrast, January 2026 contracts rose 0.23% (+10 USD) to 4,400 USD/ton.
• Arabica coffee futures in New York for December 2025 increased by 1.38% (+5.2 US cents/pound), reaching 380.85 US cents/pound. March 2026 contracts climbed 1.11% (+3.95 US cents/pound) to 361.25 US cents/pound.

The rebound in arabica was primarily attributed to speculative short covering, driven by a stronger Brazilian real and tightening inventories under ICE monitoring.

Currency Strength and Its Impact on Coffee Prices Today

The Brazilian real rose to its strongest level in 15 months against the U.S. dollar, limiting export incentives for Brazilian farmers and traders. When the real appreciates, coffee producers in Brazil—by far the world’s largest arabica exporter—are less motivated to sell their stocks abroad, tightening global supply and creating upward pressure on prices.

This dynamic explains why coffee prices today diverged between arabica and robusta: arabica, more heavily influenced by speculative flows and Brazil’s macroeconomic environment, gained strength, while robusta, driven more by physical supply and regional harvest cycles, saw mixed movements across contract months.

U.S. Tariffs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions

A critical driver behind current volatility is the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on coffee imports from Brazil. This policy has disrupted established trade flows, reducing U.S. access to Brazilian arabica and shifting demand toward alternative suppliers.

• ICE-certified arabica inventories dropped to a 16.5-month low of 658,302 bags as of September 18.
• Robusta inventories monitored by ICE also fell to a 1.75-month low, at 6,517 lots.

American buyers have canceled new contracts for Brazilian green coffee, underscoring the tariff’s impact. Since nearly one-third of U.S. green coffee imports originate from Brazil, the tariff-induced shortage has heightened competition for available stocks.

This tightening of supply chains supports higher coffee prices today, particularly for arabica.

Speculative Selling and Market Correction

Earlier in the week, aggressive long liquidation by investment funds led to sharp declines when key support levels were breached. The market had entered technically overbought territory, with indicators signaling excessive bullish momentum. News of rainfall in parts of Brazil’s coffee belt triggered profit-taking and a correction.

However, even with partial recovery, traders highlight that structural tightness in inventories and restricted U.S. supply channels continue to underpin arabica’s relative strength.

Brazil’s Weather and Crop Outlook

Weather remains central to global coffee market trends. While reports indicated localized rainfall in Brazil’s coffee belt, analysts caution that conditions are not yet sufficient to alleviate long-term concerns. The next flowering phase of arabica trees, beginning in October, will determine the 2026–2027 harvest outlook.

If La Niña conditions materialize—as forecasted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with a 71% probability—Brazil may face prolonged drought, which could reduce yields and drive further volatility in coffee prices today.

Vietnam’s Coffee Market: Trade and Export Performance

While Brazil dominates headlines, Vietnam continues to reinforce its role as the world’s largest robusta producer. Coffee trading in Vietnam this week has remained subdued due to tight domestic supply and weak demand, as traders await the official start of the new harvest season next month.

Despite muted short-term trade, Vietnam has achieved record-breaking export results:

• According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, August 2025 exports reached 84,062 tons valued at 460 million USD, up 11.1% in volume and 14.3% in value year-on-year.
• In the first eight months of 2025, exports totaled nearly 1.15 million tons, with revenues hitting 6.5 billion USD—a historic high. This represents a 8.6% rise in volume and a staggering 61.1% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024.

These achievements allowed Vietnam to surpass its official 2030 export revenue target of 6 billion USD five years early, consolidating its position as a global coffee powerhouse.

Coffee Prices Today and Vietnam Green Coffee Beans

Vietnam’s success in exports is closely tied to the premium commanded by Vietnam green coffee beans, particularly as global buyers seek alternatives to Brazilian supplies.

• Average export prices reached 5,657 USD/ton in the first eight months of 2025, up 48.4% year-on-year.
• In August alone, the average export price was 5,472 USD/ton, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and 3.7% higher than August 2024.

The strong performance of Vietnam green coffee beans underscores their importance in stabilizing supply chains amid global disruptions.

European Union as Vietnam’s Key Market

The European Union (EU) remains Vietnam’s leading export destination:

• In the first eight months of 2025, exports to the EU reached 480,474 tons worth 2.66 billion USD.
• This represented a 16% increase in volume and a 73.2% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024.
• The EU accounted for 41.8% of total export volume and 41% of total export value.

European demand has been further boosted by the approaching implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to take effect on December 31. Anticipating compliance risks, many European roasters and importers are stockpiling Vietnamese green coffee beans ahead of the deadline, adding momentum to exports.

Market Dynamics: Robusta vs. Arabica

The contrasting trends in coffee prices today reflect the structural differences between robusta and arabica markets:

• Arabica: Highly sensitive to Brazil’s macroeconomic and climatic conditions. Price movements are amplified by speculative trading and futures contract dynamics.
• Robusta: Driven by physical supply-demand balances, harvest cycles in Vietnam and Indonesia, and global shifts in consumption preferences.

With Brazil’s exports constrained by tariffs and Vietnam’s robusta in high demand, the two markets are increasingly interlinked. Roasters worldwide are adjusting blends to manage costs, substituting robusta for arabica where feasible, while maintaining product quality.

Industry Implications of Coffee Prices Today

For coffee producers, distributors, and roasters, today’s market conditions carry significant implications:

• Producers: Brazil’s farmers may withhold stocks due to currency appreciation, while Vietnamese farmers benefit from record-high domestic prices and export revenues.
• Distributors: Global supply chains are being reshaped, with increased reliance on Vietnamese robusta and diversification away from Brazil.
• Roasters: Higher arabica prices and tightening inventories force roasters to adjust blends, increase hedging strategies, and prepare for further cost inflation.

The shifting dynamics underline the importance of Vietnam green coffee beans as a stabilizing force in an increasingly uncertain global coffee market.