Coffee Prices Today, August 19: Arabica Hits Two-Month High, Robusta Retreats

Coffee prices moved in opposite directions at the start of the week. Arabica extended its rally by 0.57% to reach a two-month high, while robusta turned lower, falling by 1.09%. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Agriculture Minister, Carlos Fávaro, suggested that Brazilian coffee exports could be exempt from the 50% U.S. tariff.

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Global Coffee Price Update

London Robusta Futures (August 18 Closing):

• September 2025 contract: US $4,155/ton, down 1.09% (-US $46) from the previous session.
• November 2025 contract: US $4,020/ton, down 1.16% (-US $47).

New York Arabica Futures:

• September 2025 contract: 343.6 US cents/lb, up 0.57% (+1.95 cents).
• December 2025 contract: 336.05 US cents/lb, up 0.55% (+1.85 cents).

According to Barchart and Reuters, arabica prices have now climbed to their highest level in two months.

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Weather and Tariff News Driving the Market

Prices are being supported by below-average rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

However, robusta prices fell back from intraday highs after Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro said that the country’s coffee exports might be exempt from the new 50% U.S. import tariff.

The market is still waiting for clarity on U.S. trade policy, as President Donald Trump has not yet officially excluded coffee from the tariff list. If the tariff remains, Brazilian exports to the U.S. could drop, leading to higher domestic inventories in Brazil.

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Inventories and Speculative Positions

Traders noted that the recent rally was partly fueled by certified coffee inventories falling to their lowest levels in more than a year, as roasters sought alternative supplies following the U.S. tariff decision.

• ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags last Thursday, before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags on Monday.
• Robusta stocks on ICE declined to a three-week low of 6,907 lots by the end of last week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that speculators increased their net long positions in arabica futures on ICE U.S. during the week ending August 12.