Coffee Prices Today, August 21: Coffee Price Rally Returns

Coffee prices continued to surge on both major exchanges, driven by speculative buying amid tight inventories and global trade disruptions caused by the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports.

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Global Coffee Price Update

Coffee has now extended its two-week rally, with arabica hitting a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching its highest level in 2.5 months.

• London Robusta (August 20 Closing):
  • September 2025 contract: US $4,646/ton, up 5.35% (+US $236).
  • November 2025 contract: US $4,401/ton, up 3.12% (+US $133).
• New York Arabica:
  • September 2025 contract: 360.25 US cents/lb, up 1.14% (+4.05 cents).
  • December 2025 contract: 353.45 US cents/lb, up 1.26% (+4.4 cents).

According to Reuters, arabica on the ICE exchange has climbed to its highest level in 2.5 months, fueled by speculative buying amid low inventories and disruptions in global coffee trade due to U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports.

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Inventory Dynamics

The rally is supported by a decline in certified exchange stocks, as roasters seek alternative supplies following the U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee.

• Arabica inventories monitored by ICE rose slightly this week, reaching 736,573 bags as of August 19, up from a recent low of 726,661 bags on August 14. Most of the replenishment came from Honduras, with some contributions from Mexico.
• Robusta inventories on ICE fell to a three-week low of 6,732 lots on Wednesday.

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Brazil: Cold Weather Threatens Coffee Production

Brazilian producers—the world’s largest coffee growers—remain reluctant to sell, amid concerns that recent cold weather could impact output.

Thiago Cazarini, a broker from Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, observed:

“Clearly, even though prices have risen recently, producers are still not very eager to sell.”

According to coffee cooperative Expocacer, an early-August cold snap is expected to reduce next year’s crop in Cerrado Mineiro—a key producing region—by about 412,000 bags of 60kg, equivalent to 5.5% of production.

• Temperatures in the area dropped to just 2°C (35.6°F).
• Glaucio de Castro, President of the Cerrado Coffee Growers’ Federation, told Reuters the cold damaged young coffee shoots, which may affect flowering in the 2026 crop.

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Crop Outlook and Frost Damage

• Consultancy StoneX forecasts the 2025 harvest in Cerrado Mineiro—currently underway—at over 6 million 60kg bags.
• Expocacer’s survey of nearly 13,000 hectares found frost damage across 1,173 hectares, affecting 67 coffee farms.
• In areas directly hit by frost, average production potential losses were estimated at 55%.
• Expocacer added that assessments are ongoing, with more detailed figures to come in later reports.