Coffee Prices Today, Dec 10: Mild Recovery Amidst Harvest Pressure and Trade Shifts

Coffee prices today witnessed a slight rebound on both major exchanges, though the recovery remains fragile. The market is balancing the downward pressure from Vietnam’s accelerating harvest against the anticipation of recovering Brazilian exports to the US following recent tariff adjustments.

Global Market Update: Futures Edge Higher

Trading on December 9 showed a mixed but generally positive sentiment across the boards, with deferred contracts gaining traction.

Robusta (London): The market stabilized after recent losses. The January 2026 contract nudged up 0.24% ($10/ton) to close at $4,228/ton. The March 2026 contract saw stronger support, rising 0.42% ($17/ton) to settle at $4,109/ton.
Arabica (New York): The trend was split between near and medium terms. The December 2025 contract dipped 0.46% (1.85 US cents/lb) to 394.20 US cents/lb. However, the March 2026 contract rallied 0.70% (2.55 US cents/lb) to close at 368.75 US cents/lb.

Vietnam Market: Harvest Accelerates as Domestic Prices Cool

In Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer, weather conditions have finally turned favorable for farmers.

Domestic Prices: Reflecting the influx of new supply, domestic coffee prices dropped by an average of 1,500 VND/kg, bringing the average price to 105,300 VND/kg. Key provincial prices include:
- Dak Lak: 105,500 VND/kg.
- Lam Dong: 104,500 VND/kg.
- Gia Lai: 105,000 VND/kg.
Harvest Outlook: Traders report that the Central Highlands are finally experiencing dry weather after recent storms, allowing the harvest to accelerate significantly.
Export Performance: Despite severe weather earlier in the season, Vietnam’s coffee exports in November surged 38% year-on-year, indicating robust logistical flow.

Brazil Market: Weather and Tariff Dynamics

The Brazilian market is navigating complex weather patterns and shifting trade policies with the US.

Weather Outlook: LSEG Weather Research forecasts cool and wet conditions across key Arabica growing regions in the coming weeks, which is expected to support crop development.
Export Data (November): Cecafe reported a sharp 27.1% year-on-year decline in green coffee exports for November, totaling 3.28 million bags.
- Arabica: Fell 18.3% to 3.03 million bags.
- Robusta: Plunged approximately 68% to just 259,323 bags.
Trade Policy Impact: Exports were heavily impacted by 50% tariffs imposed by the US administration in August amid political tensions. However, following the late-November executive order removing the 40% additional tariff on Brazilian coffee, trade flows are recovering.
Outlook: Cecafe President Marcio Ferreira noted that trade between Brazil and the US has begun to rebound, with export figures expected to improve starting in December. However, instant coffee remains subject to the full 50% tariff, a critical issue given it represents ~10% of Brazil’s exports to the US.