Coffee Prices Today, Dec 3: Robusta Plunges as Vietnam Enters Peak Harvest Season

Coffee prices today experienced a sharp correction, with Robusta futures shedding over $120 per ton. The bearish sentiment is driven by improved weather conditions in Vietnam, allowing the world’s largest Robusta producer to resume harvesting activities after recent disruptions caused by storms and flooding.

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Domestic Market Update (Vietnam)

The domestic market in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has reacted immediately to the global downturn and the resumption of fieldwork.

• Price Trend: Domestic buying prices have adjusted downward, mirroring the sharp $121/ton drop on the London exchange.
• Harvest Activity: After a period of interruption due to heavy rains and flooding in key provinces like Dak Lak and Gia Lai, the return of dry, sunny weather has allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting.
• Supply Pressure: With the harvest season expected to peak in December, the volume of fresh coffee cherries arriving at drying yards and processing stations is increasing rapidly. This surge in physical supply is alleviating the tightness that supported prices in previous weeks.
• Farmer Sentiment: While current prices have corrected, the overall crop quality is reported to be stable. Farmers are utilizing the favorable weather window to dry their coffee, although some concerns remain regarding potential storms later in the month.

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Global Market Update

At the close of the trading session on December 2, futures prices on both major exchanges retreated as supply pressure from Vietnam began to weigh on the market:

• Robusta (London): The January 2026 contract faced a significant sell-off, dropping 2.70% ($121/ton) to close at $4,351/ton. The March 2026 contract followed suit, falling 2.73% ($119/ton) to settle at $4,219/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The December 2025 contract saw a moderate decline of 1.44% (5.95 US cents/lb), closing at 405.55 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 1.64% (6.25 US cents/lb) to 373.45 US cents/lb.

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Vietnam Harvest Outlook: The “Supply Wall” Approaches

Robusta prices have been under pressure this week as drier weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has allowed farmers to return to the fields. According to industry leaders, the harvest is accelerating, with peak volume expected later in December.

Production Forecasts: A 4-Year High

Despite earlier concerns regarding typhoons and flooding, Bloomberg reports that Vietnam is on track to deliver its largest coffee crop in four years.

• Vicofa Projection: Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa), maintains that production for the 2025-2026 crop year will increase by 10% compared to the previous season.
• Export Outlook: Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Simexco Dak Lak (one of Vietnam’s largest exporters), forecasts that Robusta exports will rise by roughly 7% to 1.6 million tons.
• Total Output: Simexco projects total national output (Arabica + Robusta) will reach 1.9 million tons this year.

Harvest Progress & Weather Impact

According to Vicofa, farmers have completed at least 10% of the harvest. While recent storms in key provinces like Dak Lak and Gia Lai raised alarms, industry assessments suggest the damage is contained.

• Damage Assessment: “There are some areas where trees are old and cherries were fully ripe, so quality was affected by the rain, but this rate is very small—under 3%,” stated Mr. Huy of Simexco. “If there are no further storms or floods, the quality of Vietnamese coffee this year will be very good.”
• Mitigation: Farmers have increasingly invested in mechanical drying systems, ensuring consistent quality even during intermittent rains.

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Market Dynamics: Supply vs. Demand

While the influx of new crop supply is pressuring prices downward, the floor price remains supported by tight global inventories.

• Global Stocks: “Inventories in consuming countries are at low levels, and everyone wants Vietnam to export more coffee,” Mr. Huy noted on the sidelines of the Asia International Coffee Conference in Ho Chi Minh City.
• Domestic Consumption: A factor potentially limiting exports is rising domestic consumption within Vietnam, as the local coffee culture continues to expand.
• Corporate Growth: Leading exporters are bullish on volume. Simexco expects its total volume to rise 10% to 132,000 tons this year. Vinh Hiep, the country’s second-largest exporter, also anticipates similar export growth, downplaying weather-related losses.

Conclusion

“We will have more coffee supply this year,” Mr. Huy summarized. “But with unpredictable weather, tariffs, and low inventories, we still do not have a clear picture. We cannot predict where prices will go.”

While the immediate harvest pressure is bearish for Robusta, the underlying fundamentals of strong demand and low stocks suggest high volatility will persist.