Coffee Prices Today, Dec 4: Robusta Falls for 3rd Straight Session, Hovering Around $4,300/Ton

Coffee prices continued to decline today (Dec 4), marking the third consecutive session of losses. Robusta futures dropped to around $4,300 per ton. The market has found some relief from the US decision to lift tariffs on Brazilian green coffee imports, coupled with the near-certainty that the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will be postponed by one year.

Global Coffee Market Update

In the trading session on December 3, prices on both major exchanges extended their downward trend:

Robusta (London): The January 2026 futures contract fell 0.82% ($36/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,315/ton. The March 2026 contract decreased by 0.16% ($7/ton), settling at $4,212/ton. This marks the third consecutive day of decline for the Robusta market.
Arabica (New York): The December 2025 futures contract saw a slight decrease of 0.43% (1.80 US cents/lb), reaching 403.75 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 0.26% (1.00 US cent/lb) to 372.45 US cents/lb.

Market Analysis

Robusta: Harvest Uncertainty in Vietnam

According to Reuters, Robusta futures fell to a 1.5-week low as the market continues to assess whether recent storms and flooding in Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—have significantly impacted harvest prospects.

Traders report that storms have delayed the harvest and caused cherry drop. Opinions are divided: some maintain a positive outlook for the crop, while others estimate that the storms could reduce production by 5% to 10%.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa), maintained his forecast that production in the 2025-2026 crop year will be 10% higher than the previous season. However, he warned that any further rain in the coming weeks could compromise bean quality. Farmers have completed at least 10% of the harvest, according to Hai.

Arabica: Supported by Currency and Brazil Weather

The decline in Arabica prices was limited by a strengthening Brazilian real (USDBRL), which hit a 2-week high against the USD. This discourages Brazilian producers from selling for export.

While exports from Brazil to the US remain slow despite the tariff removal, volumes are expected to pick up early next year.

Brazil Crop Outlook Remains Mixed

News from Brazil presents a conflicting picture. Some sources report good rainfall across key growing regions, with climate models predicting continued rain through December.

However, Vicente Zotti, managing partner at Pine Agronegócios, warns that Brazil’s next harvest could lose over 3 million bags compared to its initial potential. Heberson Sastre, operations manager at Minasul, noted that in previous years, high temperatures hindered fruit development even when rainfall was adequate.

Vietnam Export Performance

Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that coffee remains a bright spot in the agricultural sector.

Volume: Exports in the first 11 months of 2025 reached 1.4 million tons, a 14.1% increase.
Value: Export revenue hit $7.88 billion, a surge of 59.7%.
Price: The average export price reached $5,667.6 per ton, up nearly 40%.
Key Markets: Germany, Italy, and Spain remain the largest buyers. Notably, exports to Mexico skyrocketed by 26.1 times.