Coffee Prices Today, Dec 9: Robusta Hits 2.5-Month Low as Vietnam Harvest Accelerates

Coffee prices today (Dec 9) continued their downward slide on global exchanges. Robusta futures tumbled to a 2.5-month low as the harvest in Vietnam—the world’s largest producer of the variety—gathers pace following recent delays caused by storms and flooding.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the trading session on December 8, both markets faced significant selling pressure:

Robusta (London): The January 2026 contract fell sharply by 1.78% ($77/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,218/ton. The March 2026 contract dropped 2.05% ($86/ton), settling at $4,092/ton.
Arabica (New York): The December 2025 contract plunged 2.50% (10.20 US cents/lb), closing at 396.05 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 2.30% (8.65 US cents/lb) to 366.20 US cents/lb.

Robusta Analysis: The Supply Wave Arrives

According to Reuters and Barchart, Robusta prices hit their lowest level in 2.5 months as the physical supply from Vietnam begins to flow.

Harvest Acceleration: After weeks of disruption from typhoons and floods, drier weather has allowed Vietnamese farmers to accelerate picking and processing.
Export Surge: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that coffee exports in November surged 39% year-on-year, reaching 88,000 tons.
Year-to-Date Performance: Total coffee exports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 1.398 million tons, a 14.8% increase compared to the same period last year.

Arabica Analysis: Brazil Outlook and US Policy

Arabica prices retreated due to expectations of normalized trade flows and favorable long-term supply forecasts.

Bearish Factors:

Brazil Production Upgrade: Conab, Brazil’s supply agency, raised its 2025 production forecast to 56.54 million bags, a 2.4% increase from its September estimate of 55.2 million bags.
US Tariff Removal: Traders anticipate a surge in exports from Brazil to the US in the coming weeks following the removal of import tariffs. BMI noted in a Monday report: “Prices are expected to decline in the coming weeks as the US removal of tariffs on Brazilian coffee helps normalize trade flows and allows for the rebuilding of US ICE-certified stocks.”
Volatility: “Volatility is increasing as the year ends. Prices drop 2% today, they might rise 3% tomorrow,” noted a Brazilian broker.

Bullish Factors (Limiting the Fall):

Dry Weather: Immediate weather concerns provided some support. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received only 11 mm of rain last week, or just 17% of the historical average.
Inventory divergence: While Arabica stocks recovered slightly to a 1-month high of 426,523 bags on Friday, ICE Robusta stocks fell to an 11.5-month low of 4,021 lots as of Dec 8.

Other Origin News: Uganda

Export Boom: Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture reported a 38% year-on-year increase in coffee exports for October, driven by a strong harvest in the central and eastern regions.
Volume: The East African nation exported 685,720 bags (60kg) in October, compared to 496,820 bags a year earlier.
Revenue: In the 12 months ending in October, Uganda earned $2.4 billion from coffee exports, a sharp rise from $1.3 billion in the prior period.

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