Coffee Prices Today, December 18, 2025: Deep Slump as Harvest Pressure Intensifies

The coffee market witnessed a significant downward correction today as a massive wave of new-crop selling hit major exchanges. Prices for both Robusta and Arabica plummeted, with Robusta dropping below the $3,800 mark and Arabica losing over 7% in a single session.

Global Coffee Market Update

The closing session on December 17, 2025, showed a sharp decline across all key contracts:

• Robusta Coffee (London):
  • January 2026 Delivery: Fell sharply by 3.45% ($136/ton), closing at $3,799/ton.
  • March 2026 Delivery: Decreased by 3.3% ($127/ton) to settle at $3,705/ton.
• Arabica Coffee (New York):
  • December 2025 Delivery: Plunged by 7.21% (27.4 US cents/lb), dropping to 351.9 US cents/lb.
  • March 2026 Delivery: Declined by 1.32% (4.7 US cents/lb), reaching 347.4 US cents/lb.

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Domestic Market Context (Vietnam)

While global markets are currently in a deep slump, the domestic context in Vietnam has seen recent volatility. As of December 11, 2025, the average internal price stood at 101,700 VND/kg. However, current reports as of December 18 indicate that prices in key regions like the Central Highlands have since followed the global trend, dropping further to approximately 92,500 – 93,300 VND/kg due to the intensified harvest season.

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Key Market Drivers and Analysis

1. Aggressive Selling in Vietnam

Traders report that the primary pressure on Robusta prices stems from heavy selling by local Vietnamese merchants. As the world’s leading Robusta producer, the influx of Vietnam’s new harvest is currently saturating the market. Despite recent weather disruptions, the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa) continues to forecast a 10% production increase for this season.

2. Favorable Outlook in Brazil

Ideal weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s top producer, have bolstered supply expectations for 2026. In the state of Minas Gerais—the largest Arabica-growing region—rainfall for the week ending December 12 reached 79.8 mm, representing 155% of the historical average.

3. Currency and Policy Shifts

• Weakened Real: The Brazilian Real (USDBRL) hit a 4.25-month low against the USD, encouraging Brazilian producers to ramp up exports to maximize dollar returns.
• Tariff Removal: Brazil’s sales for the 2025-2026 crop year reached 69% of expected output by December 10, partly driven by increased U.S. demand after the dỡ bỏ (lifting) of coffee tariffs.
• EUDR Postponement: The high probability of a one-year delay for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has also removed some immediate supply-side anxiety, contributing to lower prices.

4. 2026-2027 Production Forecasts

Preliminary estimates for Brazil’s 2026-2027 crop year suggest a strong recovery. Hedgepoint Global Markets projects total production between 71 and 74.4 million bags, a significant jump from the 64.7 million bags expected this year.

• Arabica: Expected to rise to 46.5–49.0 million bags (up 23.3% to 30%).
• Robusta: Projected at 24.6–25.4 million bags, a slight decrease from the record 2025-2026 cycle.

As harvest pressure remains high in the short term and supply forecasts for the coming years trend upward, the coffee market is likely to remain under pressure. For a deeper look into the financial mechanisms behind these price movements, you may want to explore our next topic.

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