Coffee Prices Today Jan 9: Slight Decline Amidst Strengthening USD

Coffee prices today (Jan 9) simultaneously declined slightly across exchanges as the Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a 4-week high, triggering a sell-off of long positions in the coffee futures market.

World Coffee Price Update Closing the trading session on January 8, online Robusta prices for the March 2026 delivery term on the London exchange continued a slight decline of 0.28% ($11/ton) compared to the previous session, falling to $3,928/ton. The May 2026 delivery contract decreased by 0.26% ($10/ton), also reaching $3,928/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica prices for the March 2026 delivery term also reversed downward by 0.43% (1.60 US cents/lb), reaching 372.35 US cents/lb. The May 2026 delivery contract fell 0.25% (0.90 US cents/lb) to 352.85 US cents/lb.

Market Drivers According to Reuters, prices declined in the past session due to the strengthening USD. Although Arabica prices on ICE retreated from three-week highs, the market remains closely monitoring political tensions between the US and key suppliers following the US military campaign in Venezuela. Traders indicate that tensions between the US and top suppliers have the potential to escalate, creating upside price risks for the market.

Supply and Production News

• Vietnam: Production in the world’s largest Robusta producer appears to have increased slightly this season, though farmers are still restricting sales in expectation of higher prices.
• Brazil: According to Comunicaffe, weather conditions continue to impact Arabica prices, with rainfall in key coffee belt regions below average. Denis Garcia, a meteorologist at Meteored, stated that rainfall is expected to continue declining in parts of Southeastern Brazil in the coming days, potentially worsening crop prospects.
• Colombia: Preliminary data shows Colombia’s 2025 coffee production reached 13.4 million bags, a 4.1% decrease compared to 2024. The decline was particularly pronounced in Q4, falling 29.5% year-on-year. The harvest was affected by adverse weather in the first half of 2025, where rainfall was 50% higher than average, negatively impacting flowering and crop development.

Geopolitical Context Concerns regarding the political situation in South America are rising. Rabobank reported that potential instability regarding Colombia and US relations is contributing to price increases. Furthermore, the US campaign in Venezuela has faced criticism from Brazilian President Lula and Colombian President Petro. If US-Brazil relations deteriorate, this could create further risks for coffee prices.