Coffee Prices Today, Nov 12: Arabica and Robusta Continue Mixed Performance; What Are the Causes?

Coffee prices today continued to show a mixed performance, with Arabica climbing to a 2.5-week high while Robusta edged slightly lower. A strengthening Brazilian real, which hit a 17-month high, has reduced the incentive for producers in Brazil—the world’s largest Arabica exporter—to sell.

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Global Coffee Market Update

At the conclusion of the November 11 trading session, coffee futures prices were recorded as follows:

• Robusta (London): The November 2025 contract continued its slight decline, falling 0.1% ($5/ton) from the previous session to $4,632/ton. The January 2026 contract saw a similar decrease, closing at $4,618/ton.
• Arabica (New York): On the New York exchange, the December 2025 contract continued its upward trend, gaining an additional 1.92% (7.95 US cents/lb) from the prior day to settle at 422.70 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract rose 1.56% (6.15 US cents/lb), reaching 399.30 US cents/lb.

Vietnam Domestic Coffee Prices

In Vietnam’s domestic market, prices on November 12, 2025, saw a slight decrease, following the London trend. The average price in the Central Highlands fell by 500 VND/kg to 118,200 VND/kg.

Prices in key producing provinces were recorded as follows:

• Dak Lak: 118,500 VND/kg (a decrease of 500 VND)
• Lam Dong: 117,300 VND/kg (a decrease of 300 VND)
• Gia Lai: 118,000 VND/kg (a decrease of 600 VND)
• Dak Nong: 118,000 VND/kg (a decrease of 500 VND)

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Market Analysis

Arabica Boosted by Strong Real and Low Stocks

According to Barchart and Reuters, Arabica prices reached their highest level in 2.5 weeks, primarily driven by a strengthening Brazilian real. The real hit a 17-month high against the USD, which disincentivizes Brazilian producers from selling their coffee on the global market, thereby tightening the available supply.

This price support is amplified by dwindling inventories. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low, reaching 406,129 bags as of November 11.

However, the rally was somewhat capped by favorable weather news. Abundant rainfall in Brazil is easing concerns over dryness. According to the weather agency Somar Meteorologia, the state of Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region—received 72.1 mm of rain in the week ending November 7, equivalent to 160% of the historical average.

Robusta Weighed Down by Harvest Pressure

Meanwhile, Robusta prices dipped slightly as Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of Robusta, enters its new harvest season.

Weather concerns have also eased. “Tropical storm Fung-wong is unlikely to make direct landfall in Vietnam,” one trader noted. “However, due to existing flooding and saturated soil, any additional rainfall could still disrupt harvesting, drying, and transportation.”

Similar to Arabica, Robusta inventories remain tight, with ICE-monitored stocks falling to a 3.75-month low of 5,873 lots as of early this week.

Related News: EU Seeks to Delay Deforestation Law (EUDR)

In a related development, a draft negotiation document from the EU dated November 10 shows that member states are seeking to postpone the implementation of the bloc’s anti-deforestation law by another year.

The draft, seen by Reuters, proposes moving the law’s application date to December 30, 2026, for large enterprises and June 30, 2027, for small businesses.

Last month, the European Commission (EC) proposed some adjustments to make compliance easier for small producers and businesses but did not agree to delay the landmark policy. However, according to the draft, “for many member states, the Commission’s proposal is not sufficient.”

Under the law, exporters of commodities such as beef, coffee, soy, and rubber will need to provide due diligence reports proving their products do not contribute to deforestation.

EU countries and the European Parliament are racing to reach an agreement on final changes by mid-December to avoid the law taking effect as currently planned.

Denmark, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, authored the negotiation document. A Danish spokesperson said the goal is to secure quick support from member states so they can negotiate a final agreement in time.

“Most member states do not want this law to be applied in its current form at the end of this year,” the spokesperson said.