Coffee Prices Today, Nov 14: Decline Slows as Market Awaits New US Tariff Signals

Coffee prices today (Nov 14) continued to fall compared to yesterday, but the decline has slowed as traders await detailed information on a potential US reduction or exemption of tariffs on products that cannot be grown domestically.

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Global Coffee Market Update

In the trading session on November 13, prices on both the London and New York exchanges saw slight reductions.

• Robusta (London): The November 2025 futures contract fell by 0.51% ($23/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,369/ton. The January 2026 contract also decreased by 0.52% ($23/ton), settling at $4,343/ton.
• Arabica (New York): On the New York exchange, the December 2025 futures contract also declined by 0.47% (1.95 US cents/lb) from the prior day, closing at 401.70 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 0.63% (2.40 US cents/lb), finishing at 374.25 US cents/lb.

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Market Analysis

US-Brazil Tariff Negotiations in Focus

According to Reuters, global coffee prices continued to fall on Thursday after a sharp drop in the previous session, as traders awaited further details on potential US tariff relief for products not grown in the United States.

According to a diplomatic source, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on November 13 on the sidelines of the G7 meeting to discuss progress in the ongoing tariff negotiations.

This news emerged hours after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Americans would see “significant announcements” in the coming days aimed at lowering prices for products not produced in the US, such as coffee.

Mr. Vieira is scheduled to meet with Mr. Rubio again later on November 14 in Washington to continue trade talks.

“What’s missing from today’s news is real clarity on the US position,” commented coffee consultant and broker Michael J. Nugent.

The US, the world’s largest coffee consumer, currently imposes a 50% tariff on coffee imported from Brazil, the nation that grows nearly half of the world’s arabica and supplied one-third of the green beans consumed in the US last year.

According to the Brazil Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil’s green (unroasted) coffee exports in October fell 20.4% year-on-year, heavily impacted by a poor harvest and the US tariffs. Consequently, Brazil’s coffee exports to the US plummeted by 54% in the past month.

A European coffee trader told Reuters he estimates that arabica futures are still trading about 70 cents/lb higher than they would be without the US tariffs, but the market needs specific details on the tariff reduction to move below its current levels.

Roasted coffee prices in US grocery stores in September were up 41% from a year ago, and this price increase—along with general food inflation—is impacting the approval ratings of the Trump administration.

Brazil’s 2026-2027 Crop Forecast

According to consulting firm StoneX, Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 season is forecast to reach 70.7 million bags, a strong increase of 13.5% from the previous crop. Of this, arabica production is expected to surge by 29.3% to 47.2 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to decrease by 8.9% to 23.5 million bags.

The 2026 crop is considered crucial for replenishing inventories after several years of below-potential output, which has contributed to the decline in global reserves. The upcoming season will be the “on-year” in the biennial production cycle for Brazilian arabica, which alternates between high and low-output years.

“Despite the expected recovery, the volume is still below the maximum potential that could be achieved under ideal weather conditions,” StoneX stated.

The lower robusta output is linked to structural crop management issues, as well as the aging of coffee trees in the state of Espirito Santo—the top robusta-producing region.

“The final result of the 2026-2027 harvest will reflect a balance between the damaged areas and the increase in newly planted areas.”