Coffee Prices Today, Nov 18: Robusta Skyrockets $260/Ton in a Single Session

Coffee prices today showed a strong rebound, especially for Robusta, which surged by as much as $260/ton for the January 2026 contract. The market found support following US tariff changes, as Robusta producers in Asia are now mostly exempt, while Brazilian coffee remains heavily taxed.

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Global Coffee Market Update

Coffee prices on both exchanges signaled a strong rebound after a previous sharp decline.

At the close of the November 17 trading session:

• Robusta (London): The November 2025 futures contract increased by 4.80% ($204/ton) from the previous session, rising to $4,453/ton. The January 2026 contract skyrocketed 6.16% ($260/ton), closing at $4,483/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The December 2025 futures contract saw a slight increase of 0.69% (2.75 US cents/lb) from the prior day, reaching 402.55 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract rose 0.70% (2.60 US cents/lb) to 376.60 US cents/lb.

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Market Analysis

US Tariff Changes to Redirect Trade Flows

According to Reuters, the Trump administration’s decision to eliminate tariffs on most imported coffee beans will benefit US roasters and importers. However, the world’s top producer, Brazil, will be hurt as its coffee still faces high tariffs.

While the measures announced late last Friday removed import tariffs on coffee beans from most producing countries, only the 10% reciprocal tariff on Brazilian coffee was lifted. The 40% supplementary tariff remains in place.

Coffee industry analysts and officials stated that these changes will continue to push the US—the world’s largest coffee market—to source from Asia and Latin America while turning away from Brazilian coffee.

“This is just a matter of price redirecting trade flows,” said Judith Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting and a senior soft commodities analyst.

Ganes noted that Robusta received support from the US tariff changes, as Robusta producers in Asia are now mostly exempt, while Brazilian coffee remains heavily taxed. She added that US roasters might increase the proportion of Robusta in their blends to offset the high cost of Arabica.

Most coffee-producing countries in the Americas (excluding Brazil), which previously faced a 10% tariff, have now had it eliminated. Asian producers, who faced higher tariffs, are also now exempt, meaning they can supply coffee to the US without tariffs.

“This brings some relief to the US coffee supply, but with a 40% tariff on Brazil, the situation remains difficult,” Dutch bank Rabobank commented in a report.

“Without a full exemption for Brazil, this doesn’t change much, as the current tariff still makes importing coffee into the US unfeasible,” said a California-based coffee importer.

Brazil Remains Disadvantaged, Losing Market Share

Brazil, which once supplied one-third of US coffee beans, is still negotiating a separate agreement.

“These changes distort the market and further damage our competitiveness,” said Marcos Matos, director of the Brazil Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe). “We are losing market share, while our competitors gain.”

Brazil’s specialty coffee industry has seen its exports to the US fall by 55% in the last three months since the tariffs were applied, warned Luiz Saldanha, vice president of the Brazil Specialty Coffee Association, adding that the situation will worsen.

“Inventories of Brazilian coffee currently in the US are running low, and the industry is looking for alternatives to replace Brazilian coffee in blends,” Saldanha said.

Inventories and Production Forecasts

As of November 17, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories had fallen to a 1.75-year low of 400,790 bags. ICE Robusta inventories dropped to a 4-month low of 5,648 lots.

Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin welcomed the US decision to reduce tariffs on some imported products and said Brazil would work to achieve further reductions.

Robusta’s stronger rally in the last session was also partly due to recent forecasts indicating that Brazil’s Robusta production will decrease in the 2026-2027 season, while Arabica output is set to rise sharply.

Despite this, coffee prices were also supported by a report from Somar Meteorologia, which stated that Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received only 19.8 mm of rain in the week ending November 14, equivalent to just 42% of the historical average.