Coffee Prices Today, Nov 20: Markets Retreat on Brazil Rain Forecasts; Vietnam Floods Limit Losses

Coffee prices retreated across both major exchanges today, driven by forecasts of favorable rainfall in Brazil next week. However, the downside momentum was capped by severe flooding and landslides currently disrupting the harvest in Vietnam.

Global Coffee Market Update

In the trading session on November 19, prices corrected downward after previous gains:

• Robusta (London): The November 2025 futures contract reversed course, falling 1.24% ($57/ton) from the previous session to close at $4,517/ton. The January 2026 contract also declined 1.24% ($57/ton), settling at $4,516/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The December 2025 futures contract dropped 2.60% (10.85 US cents/lb) from the prior day, closing at 404.50 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 3.30% (12.85 US cents/lb) to 374.85 US cents/lb.

Market Analysis

Brazil: Rain Forecasts Pressure Prices

According to Barchart, coffee prices fell significantly in the recent session due to the outlook for rain in Brazil, which aids crop development and exerts downward pressure on prices. The latest forecast from Climatempo indicates heavy rain is expected over the weekend and into next week across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions.

Vietnam: Flooding Disrupts Harvest

Despite the bearish news from Brazil, price declines were limited by critically low inventories and adverse weather affecting the harvest progress in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer.

According to Reuters, Robusta futures on ICE fell in the latest session after rallying in the previous two, driven by flooding in Vietnam and expectations of stronger US demand.

Government reports indicate that a fresh wave of floods and landslides caused by heavy rains in Central Vietnam since late last week has killed at least eight people. Traders warn this could severely hamper the ongoing coffee harvest.

• Rainfall Intensity: Since Saturday night, rainfall has exceeded 1,100 mm in many areas of Central Vietnam.
• Dak Lak Impact: “Some coffee farms in low-lying areas of Dak Lak are deeply submerged,” said a coffee trader in the province.
• Harvest Delays: Heavy rains persist, slowing down picking. “Farmers in the province have only harvested about 10%-15% of their coffee, and they desperately need sunshine to dry the beans,” another Dak Lak trader added.
• Future Risks: The national weather agency has warned of the risk of further flooding and landslides, with heavy rain expected to continue in the region.

Inventories & Tariffs

• Inventory Levels:
  • ICE Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags as of November 19.
  • ICE Robusta stocks dropped to a 4-month low of 5,648 lots.
• US Tariffs: Brazil’s Vice President stated that the country’s coffee exports to the US are still subject to a specific 40% tariff imposed by the Trump administration. This tariff is based on a “national emergency” justification partially related to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Bolsonaro.