Coffee Prices Today, Nov 22: Markets Plunge as US Scraps 40% Tariff on Brazilian Coffee

Coffee prices today (Nov 22) dropped sharply across both major exchanges after US President Donald Trump unexpectedly lifted the 40% tariff on agricultural imports from Brazil, including green coffee beans. Despite the sell-off, traders believe the downside is limited as global supply shortages remain a critical support factor.

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Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the trading session on November 21, futures prices faced significant selling pressure:

• Robusta (London): The market reversed sharply. The November 2025 contract plunged 2.37% ($110/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,521/ton. The January 2026 contract fell even harder, dropping 2.69% ($125/ton) to settle at $4,506/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The December 2025 contract declined 1.59% (6.50 US cents/lb), closing at 400.00 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract fell 1.90% (7.20 US cents/lb), ending at 369.45 US cents/lb—marking a two-month low.

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Market Analysis: The “Trump Tariff” Effect

According to Reuters, global coffee prices tumbled in the final session of the week following President Trump’s removal of the controversial 40% tariff on Brazilian agricultural goods.

Political Context: Retail coffee prices in the US surged 40% in September compared to the previous year, partly due to tariff impacts. Rising food inflation has been cited as a primary reason for President Trump’s approval ratings dipping to their lowest point since his return to office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

This overnight move follows a similar decision announced last Friday to cut tariffs on coffee and dozens of other items from various producing nations. Brazil—the world’s top coffee grower and supplier of one-third of the US’s green coffee—can now resume unrestricted shipments to replenish depleting US stockpiles.

Logistics Shift: Traders are already reacting to the news. Stephen Hurst, Managing Director of coffee trader Mercanta, stated: “Following the tariff reduction announcement, we are redirecting a shipment originally destined for Germany to the US instead.”

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Why Prices May Not Crash Further

Despite the policy shock, industry experts remain cautious about calling for a sustained bear market.

1. Structural Supply Deficit: “We need the market to absorb this news. Will prices fall further? Maybe, but I don’t believe they will go below $3.00/lb. If they do, I’m ready to buy the dip,” said a trader at a leading European coffee trading house.

He explained that the global Arabica supply is still in deficit, inventories are critically low, and the industry is short on coverage, forcing them to buy. Risks associated with the La Niña weather phenomenon further threaten future output.

2. Vietnam’s Weather Woes: Beyond tariffs, traders are struggling to assess the extent of damage caused by recent floods and landslides in Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer. Supply disruptions here could cushion the price fall for Robusta.

3. Market Overreaction: A London-based coffee broker suggested the market reaction might be exaggerated. “The market overreacted to Trump’s policy reversal, as this move was somewhat anticipated. The price drop is more shocking than necessary,” he noted.