Coffee Prices Today, Nov 25: Arabica Rebounds on Supply Tightness While Robusta Slips as Vietnam Rains Ease

Coffee prices today displayed a mixed performance: Robusta futures continued to decline as weather conditions in Vietnam improved, allowing the harvest to resume. Conversely, Arabica staged a strong rebound as Brazilian farmers withheld sales and global inventories remained at critical lows.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the trading session on November 24, the two major exchanges moved in opposite directions:

• Robusta (London): The downward trend continued. The January 2026 contract fell 1.17% ($53/ton) from the previous session, closing at $4,451/ton. The March 2026 contract decreased by 0.91% ($40/ton), settling at $4,313/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The market reversed its losses. The December 2025 contract surged 1.86% (7.45 US cents/lb), closing at 407.45 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract rose 1.92% (7.10 US cents/lb), reaching 376.55 US cents/lb.

Arabica Analysis: Resilience After the Tariff Shock

According to Reuters and Barchart, the New York exchange stabilized and rallied after last Friday’s sharp sell-off, which had pushed prices to a two-month low following President Trump’s removal of the 40% tariff on Brazilian green coffee imports.

Key Drivers for the Rebound:

1. Farmer Holding: Brazilian traders report that farmers are holding back stock, waiting for better prices before selling, which is tightening immediate supply.
2. Critical Inventories: Stockpiles in consuming nations remain dangerously low. ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of Nov 20.
3. Weather Concerns: Concerns over dryness persist. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s top Arabica region—received only 26.4 mm of rain last week, or just 49% of the historical average. However, forecasts from Climatempo indicate beneficial rains are expected this week, which should aid the development of the next crop.
4. Soluble Coffee Tariffs: It is important to note that the US tariff exemption does not apply to soluble (instant) coffee. Negotiations between Brazilian officials and the US government regarding this specific category are ongoing.

Robusta Analysis: Harvest Resumes Amidst Flood Damage Assessments

Robusta prices faced downward pressure due to forecasts of drier weather in Vietnam’s key coffee-growing regions.

Harvest Resuming: Traders report that rains are subsiding in Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—and river levels are receding. This drier window is allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been stalled by heavy downpours.

Severe Flood Damage Assessment: While the immediate resumption of harvesting pressured prices today, long-term supply concerns remain severe due to the aftermath of the floods from Nov 16-23.

• Extent of Damage: According to the Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention, heavy rains caused severe agricultural damage in the South Central Coast and Central Highlands, particularly in Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Khanh Hoa, and Lam Dong.
• Crop Losses: As of Nov 23, over 80,884 hectares of crops were damaged. Dak Lak alone recorded ~63,000 hectares affected, primarily in Cư M’gar, Krông Búk, and Krông Pắc, with many fields submerged under 1-2 meters of water.
• Long-Term Impact: Approximately 117,067 hectares of perennial crops (including coffee, durian, and pepper) were affected. In Lam Dong (Bao Loc and Di Linh districts), thousands of coffee trees suffered root erosion due to prolonged flooding, posing a significant risk to productivity for the next season.
• Quality Risks: Despite the break in the rain, drying and transporting the fresh cherry remains difficult, raising concerns about the quality of the early harvest beans.