Coffee Prices Today, Nov 26: Both Markets Rally Strongly; Robusta Surges Over $100/Ton

Coffee prices today recorded strong gains across the board. Robusta staged a significant recovery, rising by more than $100 per ton, while Arabica added 6.75 US cents per pound. Despite the recent US decision to lift tariffs on Brazilian coffee, the market remains fundamentally driven by tight supply and historically low global inventories.

Global Market Update

At the close of the trading session on November 25, both major exchanges reversed previous losses:

• Robusta (London): The market ended a two-day losing streak. The January 2026 contract rebounded sharply, rising 2.38% ($106/ton) to close at $4,559/ton. The March 2026 contract also gained 2.34% ($101/ton), settling at $4,414/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The December 2025 contract continued its upward trajectory, rising 1.66% (6.75 US cents/lb) to 414.20 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract increased 1.79% (6.75 US cents/lb), reaching 383.30 US cents/lb.

Market Analysis: Fundamentals Outweigh Tariff News

According to Reuters and Barchart, while the US government announced on November 20 that it would remove the additional 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee (following the removal of a 10% tariff earlier in April), the market impact has been overshadowed by supply constraints. While Brazilian exporters welcomed the move, current export speeds remain slow, raising concerns about competitiveness.

Key Market Drivers:

1. Tight Inventory: Even with the positive tariff news, prices are being sustained by critically low stocks.
   • Arabica: ICE-monitored inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of Nov 20.
   • Robusta: ICE-monitored inventories dropped to a 4.5-month low of 5,134 lots as of Tuesday.
2. Farmer Holding: Traders report that farmers in Brazil—the world’s largest producer—are holding back sales, waiting for better prices, which is forcing the market to adjust upward following last Friday’s sell-off.
3. Weather Worries in Vietnam: Robusta prices surged largely due to forecasts of heavy rain in Dak Lak province—Vietnam’s largest coffee-producing region. These rains are expected to further delay the harvest progress.
   • Storm Alert: Early this morning (Nov 26), Typhoon No. 15 entered the East Sea with wind speeds at level 10 (gusting to level 13). The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warns the storm could strengthen, potentially disrupting logistics and fieldwork in the region.
4. Currency Support: Coffee prices received additional support from a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to 99.74 around the market close, making commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.