Coffee Prices Today, Nov 28: Robusta Rebounds on Vietnam Storm Fears; New York Closed for Thanksgiving

Coffee prices today (Nov 28) saw Robusta futures edge higher on the London exchange, driven by renewed concerns over harvest disruptions in Vietnam. Meanwhile, the New York Arabica market remained closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

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Global Coffee Market Update

In the absence of US trading, global attention focused entirely on the London Robusta market, which reacted to weather signals from Southeast Asia.

• Robusta (London): The market posted modest gains as traders positioned themselves ahead of a potential storm. The January 2026 contract rose 0.58% ($26/ton), closing at $4,539/ton. The March 2026 contract increased by 0.27% ($12/ton), settling at $4,389/ton.
• Arabica (New York): The exchange was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. In the previous session, the December 2025 contract closed at 411.50 US cents/lb, while the March 2026 contract stood at 379.70 US cents/lb.

Market Trend: Robusta futures have shown resilience, gaining 6.4% last week and maintaining stability throughout this week despite volatility.

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Market Analysis: Vietnam’s “Wet Harvest” Woes

The primary driver for Robusta’s support is the deteriorating weather situation in Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer.

1. The Threat of Typhoon Koto: According to Reuters, traders are closely monitoring Typhoon Koto, which is forecast to approach Vietnam early next week.

• The Impact: While the storm may not make a direct hit on the primary coffee belt in the Central Highlands, traders fear it will bring additional heavy rainfall.
• The Risk: The ground is already saturated from previous storms. More rain will further delay the harvest (which is already behind schedule) and significantly increase the risk of bean fermentation and quality degradation as farmers struggle to dry their cherries.

2. Inventory Crunch: Support is also coming from critically low exchange-certified stocks:

• Arabica Inventories (ICE): Fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of Nov 20.
• Robusta Inventories (ICE): Dropped to a 6.25-month low of 4,911 lots as of this Wednesday.

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Brazil Update: Weather Fears Subside

In contrast to Vietnam, the weather outlook in Brazil—the world’s top Arabica producer—appears favorable.

Cepea Report Highlights: According to the latest report from Cepea, earlier fears regarding heavy winds and storms in Brazil’s Southeast have largely proven unfounded.

• Wind Damage: While strong winds were recorded near Londrina (Northern Paraná), damage was localized and minimal.
• Safe Zones: Fears that winds would damage crops in Mogiana Paulista, Garça (São Paulo), and Southern Minas Gerais did not materialize.
• Beneficial Rains: Instead, the actual rainfall has been beneficial, aiding the development of the 2026-2027 crop.
• Crop Outlook: Surveyed agents report that the majority of flowering has set successfully. The success of the upcoming crop now depends on continued consistent rainfall, with current temperatures remaining favorable for coffee tree health.