Coffee Prices Today, Nov 6: Both Markets Rise; Strong Arabica Rally Pulls Robusta Higher

Coffee prices today posted gains across both major exchanges, driven by supply concerns as inventories continue to fall and adverse weather threatens top-producing nations.

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Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of the November 5th trading session, coffee futures prices finished higher:

• Robusta (London): The November 2025 contract for Robusta coffee rose by 1.01% ($47/ton) compared to the previous session, settling at $4,700 per ton. The January 2026 contract increased by 0.11% ($5/ton), closing at $4,686 per ton.
• Arabica (New York): The Arabica market saw a more significant increase. The December 2025 contract jumped 2.06% (8.35 US cents/lb) from the prior day, closing at 413.65 US cents/lb. The March 2026 contract gained 2.35% (9.05 US cents/lb), settling at 394.40 US cents/lb.

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Market Analysis and Price Drivers

The sharp rise in Arabica prices helped pull Robusta into positive territory on the London exchange. The primary driver for the gains remains persistently low inventory levels.

A 50% US tariff on Brazilian imports has contributed to a sharp decline in ICE coffee inventories. As of November 5th:

• ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of just 429,770 bags.
• Robusta inventories dropped to a 3.5-month low of 6,036 lots.

Market fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with significant weather concerns in Brazil and the looming threat of Typhoon Kalmaegi, which is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam between Thursday and Friday, potentially impacting the coffee-growing regions of the Central Highlands.

Coffee continues to be a standout performer for Vietnam’s agricultural exports. In the first 10 months of 2025, coffee exports generated $7.41 billion, a 62% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This 10-month export value is a record, already exceeding the total for all of 2024 by 32%.

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New Market Development: Brazilian Arabica Shipments to ICE

Despite the bullish sentiment, new information from Reuters indicates that global traders are shipping approximately 150,000 bags (60kg/bag) of Brazilian Arabica to ICE-certified warehouses in Europe. According to four industry sources, this move could help replenish stocks and cool prices, which are currently near record highs.

Sources, including three traders and a broker, stated that traders are shipping the coffee because spot prices are falling in Brazil, the top-producing nation. This price drop has made it profitable to deliver coffee to the ICE exchange, where it can be tendered against futures contracts.

“We will send 60,000 bags,” confirmed the head of coffee trading in Brazil for one of the world’s largest agricultural commodity trading firms, who also indicated his company would consider sending more if the trade proves successful.

Currently, ICE Arabica inventories are at a 1.5-year low of about 430,000 bags—a level close to the end-of-2023 figures, which were a multi-decade low. This inventory decline has helped maintain ICE Arabica futures, the global benchmark, near record-high levels.

While the delivery of 150,000 bags may help cool the price rally, two sources indicated this volume is insufficient to restore inventories to a “safe” level. This coffee is set to be delivered against the nearest Arabica contract, which expires on December 18. Another source anticipates an additional 100,000 bags may be delivered before the second-month contract expires on March 19.

Traders began planning these shipments in August, when the spot price in Brazil for ICE-certified grades fell to a discount of 18-20 cents/lb compared to the front-month ICE contract. The Brazilian trading director added that logistics costs to ship coffee from Brazil to Europe are about 12 cents/lb, making the trade profitable if the discount exceeds that amount.