Coffee Prices Today, October 10th: Mixed Performance as Front-Month Robusta Ticks Up, Arabica Declines

Today’s coffee market saw a mixed performance, with the front-month Robusta contract continuing to rise by $26 per metric ton, while Arabica futures fell by 7.85 US cents per pound. The drop in Arabica prices is attributed to forecasted rains in Brazil, which are expected to support the coffee crop’s flowering stage, and positive developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Brazil.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 9th, Robusta futures on the London exchange showed a split performance. The front-month November 2025 contract rose by 0.57% ($26/ton) from the previous session to settle at $4,568 per metric ton. However, later-dated contracts saw a decline, with the January 2026 contract falling by 0.26% ($12/ton) to $4,472 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures experienced a significant drop. The December 2025 contract fell by 2.03% (7.85 US cents/lb) from the prior session, closing at 377.25 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract also decreased by 2.06% (7.60 US cents/lb) to 360.40 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, Arabica coffee prices declined as forecasted rain in Brazil eased supply concerns. Additionally, ongoing discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have raised expectations for an improvement in trade relations between the two countries.

The two leaders had their first direct conversation this Monday since the U.S. imposed tariffs on the world’s leading coffee producer and have agreed to meet in person soon. In a further development, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday, with both parties planning an in-person meeting in Washington.

The market is currently under pressure from the expectation that the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imported into the U.S. could be reduced if the presidential talks yield a positive outcome.

Meanwhile, much-needed rainfall is forecasted for key coffee-growing regions in Brazil, helping to alleviate concerns that recent dry weather could negatively impact the upcoming crop. Previously, coffee prices had surged last month on fears that a drought in Brazil, combined with the U.S. import tariffs, could disrupt efforts to replenish dwindling stockpiles. Coffee inventories in exchange warehouses are currently at their lowest levels since March 2024.

According to a report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global green coffee exports in August fell by 2% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a sharp 18.5% decrease in exports from Brazil.

Ilya Byzov, a quantitative trader at Sucafina, noted that “the market had become nervous due to the recent period of hot and dry weather.” However, he added that current weather conditions in Brazil are now considered normal and are stimulating the main flowering of the coffee trees.

According to meteorologist Nadiara Pereira of Climatempo, rain is forecasted to spread from São Paulo to Alta Mogiana and southern Minas Gerais over the weekend, with heavier showers expected on the following Thursday and Friday. Some areas could receive more than 30 mm of rain, an amount considered “significant” for promoting the flowering process.

Dutch bank Rabobank also commented that the “much-awaited rain is forecasted to arrive in the coming days in Brazil’s Arabica belt,” which “will support flowering and put downward pressure on prices.”

In Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer, the current harvest is forecasted to increase by 10-15% compared to the previous season thanks to favorable weather conditions, according to local traders.