Coffee Prices Today, October 14th: Strong Rally on Adverse Brazil Weather and Low Inventories

Today’s coffee prices saw a significant rally across both major exchanges, with Robusta futures climbing by $80 per metric ton and Arabica adding 12.15 US cents per pound. The upward momentum is supported by lower-than-average rainfall in Brazil last week and critically low inventory levels.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 13th, Robusta futures on the London exchange posted strong gains. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,560 per metric ton, an increase of 1.79% ($80/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rose by 1.73% ($76/ton) to settle at $4,467 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures experienced an even stronger rally. The December 2025 contract surged by 3.26% (12.15 US cents/lb) from the prior session, closing at 385.20 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract increased by 2.97% (10.60 US cents/lb) to 366.95 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to Barchart, coffee futures rallied as the market continues to focus on Brazil’s upcoming 2025-2026 crop amidst a tight supply situation.

The Bullish Case: Weather and Inventories

A primary driver of the price surge is the weather in Brazil. According to meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia, in the week ending October 11th, Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received only 20.2 mm of rainfall, equivalent to just 48% of the historical average. This rain deficit is raising concerns about crop yields, particularly during the critical flowering stage for the upcoming 2026-2027 coffee crop.

Coffee prices are also being supported by sharply declining ICE inventories. The 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has contributed to a significant drawdown in ICE stocks, which has become a positive support factor for prices.

• ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a new 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags as of October 13th.
• ICE Robusta inventories also declined to a 2.5-month low of 6,237 lots as of last Wednesday.

The Bearish Counterpoints: Forecasts and Currency

However, providing a counterpoint to the weather concerns, I & M Smith reported that rainfall in Brazil’s broader coffee-growing regions is expected to remain good this week. Additional rain is forecasted for the Southeast this week, which should help lower temperatures and support the flowering of the 2026-2027 crop. Weather forecasts also suggest more stable conditions over the next two weeks following the passage of Hurricanes Gabrielle and Humberto through the Gulf of Mexico last month.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025-2026 harvest (July-June) is gradually entering the market. The Brazilian Real has depreciated by 3.75% in October, closing at its lowest level of the month against the US dollar last Friday. A weaker Real typically encourages more selling from farmers, as it increases their returns in the local currency.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil’s coffee exports from January to September reached 26.26 million bags, a decrease of 21.83% compared to the same period last year. Exports to the U.S. fell by over 25%, partly due to the uncertainty surrounding the 50% import tariff. While there are rumors of meetings and negotiations between the leaders of the two countries, there is no clarity yet on a potential change to the current tariff policy, causing U.S. importers and businesses—Brazil’s largest coffee market—to remain cautious.

Other Origin Updates: India

The Coffee Board of India reported that the country’s coffee production for the 2024-2025 crop year (Oct 2024 – Sep 2025) totaled 6.06 million bags, which is in line with previous independent forecasts. The Board also projected that production could increase by 10.9% in the 2025-2026 season to 6.72 million bags, comprising approximately 5.10 million bags of Robusta and 1.62 million bags of Arabica.

Weather conditions in India have been very favorable for the new crop, with abundant rainfall during the July and August monsoon season in the main coffee-growing regions. For two consecutive years, rainfall has been above average. According to the India Meteorological Department, the country received 8% more rain than the 5-year average, and the 2025-2026 Robusta harvest is expected to begin in the coming weeks.