Coffee Prices Today, October 24th: Sharp Reversal Lower, Robusta Plunges Nearly 4%

Coffee prices reversed course sharply lower today across both major exchanges, with Robusta experiencing a significant drop of nearly 4%, equivalent to $185 per metric ton. The downturn was primarily triggered after Vietnam’s meteorological agency downgraded the likelihood of heavy rains from tropical storm Fengshen impacting the Central Highlands, thereby reducing the perceived risk of crop damage.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 23rd, futures prices reflected this significant shift in sentiment.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures saw a steep decline. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,554 per metric ton, a sharp decrease of 3.89% ($185/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also fell significantly, dropping 3.68% ($173/ton) to close at $4,521 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures also retreated. The December 2025 contract decreased by 2.53% (10.70 US cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 410.15 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract fell by 2.25% (9.00 US cents/lb) to 389.75 US cents per pound.

Domestic Coffee Price Update (Vietnam – Oct 23rd)

Reflecting the previous day’s strong futures market gains, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands had surged on October 23rd, increasing by an average of 2,800 VND/kg. The price range was between 117,000 and 118,500 VND/kg.

• In Dak Lak and Dak Nong, prices rose to 118,500 VND/kg (+2,900 / +2,800 VND respectively).
• In Gia Lai, the price reached 118,000 VND/kg (+2,800 VND).
• In Lam Dong, the price was 117,000 VND/kg (+2,100 VND).

Market Analysis

Coffee prices relinquished earlier gains and turned sharply lower, with Arabica falling from an 8.5-month high and Robusta retreating from its 5-week peak.

According to Barchart, Arabica prices eased after the weather forecast agency Climatempo predicted rain over the weekend in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. This prospect of moisture helped alleviate immediate drought concerns.

Meanwhile, Robusta prices plunged after Vietnam’s meteorological agency lowered the probability of heavy rainfall associated with tropical storm Fengshen affecting the Central Highlands – Vietnam’s primary coffee production zone. This reduced the perceived risk of significant crop damage or harvest disruption.

Earlier in Thursday’s session, coffee prices had rallied strongly on renewed fears that severe drought conditions in Brazil during the crucial flowering stage could threaten the 2026-2027 crop. Bloomberg, citing weather analysts in Brazil, reported that coffee regions were experiencing a severe drought, with Minas Gerais state recording rainfall approximately 70% below the historical average for the past month.

Despite the price drop, Reuters noted that low inventory levels continue to provide some underlying support for the market.

• ICE-certified Arabica stocks as of October 22nd stood at 465,910 bags, the lowest level in 19 months, representing a decrease of 2,500 bags from the previous day. One month ago, these stocks were at 643,341 bags.
• ICE Robusta inventories had fallen to a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.

Other Origin News: Uganda

In Uganda, coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year (October-September) is forecasted to increase by 14.8% compared to the previous season. This growth is driven by higher yields from newly matured planted areas, according to a senior official at the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. Uganda, East Africa’s leading coffee exporter, primarily cultivates Robusta.

Production and export volumes have surged in recent months, boosted by soaring global coffee prices and additional harvests from newly matured trees. For the 12-month season ending next September, Uganda expects to produce 9.3 million 60-kg bags, up from a forecast of 8.1 million bags for the prior period, Gerald Kyalo, Director of the Coffee Directorate at the Ministry of Agriculture, told Reuters.

“The main reason is the increased acreage. Many farmers planted coffee, and we expect these trees to start yielding this year, thereby boosting exports,” he said. For several years, President Yoweri Museveni’s government has provided free seedlings to farmers to expand planted areas or establish new farms, aiming to reach an annual production target of 30 million bags by 2030. Free fertilizers have also been distributed to support this goal.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, in the 12 months leading up to August, Uganda earned $2.2 billion from coffee exports, a 57% increase compared to the same period the previous year.