Coffee Prices Today, October 28th: Both Exchanges Drop Sharply on Signals of US Easing Tariffs on Vietnam

Coffee prices fell sharply today across both major exchanges after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that coffee would be included in a new trade agreement with Vietnam, potentially exempting the commodity from a 20% import tariff.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 27th, futures prices reflected significant downward pressure.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures experienced a sharp decline. The front-month November 2025 contract settled at $4,437 per metric ton, a substantial decrease of 2.92% ($134/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also fell by 2.34% ($107/ton) to close at $4,450 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures saw an even steeper drop. The December 2025 contract plunged by 3.19% (12.90 US cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 390.10 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract decreased by 3.68% (14.10 US cents/lb) to 368.95 US cents per pound.

Market Analysis

According to Reuters, the primary driver for the price drop was comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday. He stated that coffee is among the goods included in a new trade agreement with Vietnam, under which it would be exempted from a 20% import tariff.

“We want to bring the price of coffee down a little bit,” Mr. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Tokyo, adding that he might visit Vietnam—a major coffee-producing nation.

The White House announced on Sunday that the U.S. and Vietnam would finalize a trade deal in the coming weeks. This agreement is expected to maintain a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese goods but will lift duties on certain products. The specific list of exempted products will be agreed upon by both countries at a later stage, according to a joint statement.

This news overshadowed previous bullish sentiment. Last Friday, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated that Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year could potentially increase by 10% compared to the previous season if favorable weather conditions continue.

Adding further downward pressure, Barchart reported that coffee prices also fell on expectations that the U.S. might ease import tariffs on goods from Brazil, including coffee. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva mentioned that he had a “better than expected” meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, and that there could be a “definitive solution” to the US-Brazil trade issue in the coming days. Analysts suggest this improvement in relations might be linked to Brazil’s position as the world’s second-largest producer of rare earth minerals, after China.

However, prices found some underlying support from ongoing concerns that prolonged drought conditions in Brazil during the crucial flowering stage could still threaten the 2026-2027 crop yield. A report from the meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia indicated that Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region—Minas Gerais state—received only 0.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 24th, equivalent to just 1% of the historical average. Coffee-growing areas in Brazil are experiencing a severe drought, with Minas Gerais recording only about 70% of its average rainfall over the past month.