Coffee Prices Today, October 7th: Quiet Trading as Market Awaits US-Brazil Tariff Talks

Today’s coffee prices trended downward across both major exchanges, with Robusta futures decreasing by $56 per metric ton and Arabica futures losing 9.4 US cents per pound. Traders are adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the outcome of negotiations between the U.S. and Brazilian presidents regarding the potential removal of a 50% U.S. tariff on coffee imported from Brazil.

Global Coffee Market Update

After a strong rally last week, the coffee futures market began the new week with a significant downturn.

At the close of trading on October 6th, Robusta futures for the November 2025 contract on the London exchange settled at $4,471 per metric ton, a decrease of 1.23% ($56/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract fell by 1.27% ($58/ton) to close at $4,464 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures saw a more pronounced decline. The December 2025 contract dropped by 2.40% (9.40 cents/lb) from the prior session, settling at 381.35 US cents per pound. The March 2026 contract decreased by 2.45% (9.20 cents/lb) to 364.95 US cents per pound.

According to Reuters, traders are currently less concerned about tight supply on the exchanges and are instead focusing on the outcome of talks between the U.S. and Brazilian presidents about the potential removal of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports.

Traders noted that the two leaders held a video conference described as having a “positive outcome,” though few specific details have been released.

Michael J. Nugent, a coffee market broker and consultant, commented: “The much-anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Lula—though not yet scheduled—will be pivotal. The future direction of the coffee market greatly depends on whether these two leaders can find common ground.”

On the weather front, Brazilian coffee farmers report that flowering is well underway but that more rain is needed to ensure good fruit setting.

Brazilian meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received only 0.9 mm of rain in the week ending October 4th, equivalent to just 3% of the historical average.

Meanwhile, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 535,136 bags as of October 6th, while Robusta inventories also declined to a 2.5-month low of 6,333 lots.

However, according to data released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer exported 81,000 metric tons of coffee in September, an increase of 58.5% compared to the same period last year.

In total, Vietnam exported 1.23 million metric tons of coffee in the January-to-September period, up 10.9% from the same period last year. Export revenue for the same period surged by 62.2%, reaching a record $7 billion.

For the full coffee crop year from October 2024 to September 2025, Vietnam’s total exports are estimated to have reached over 24 million bags, a slight decrease of 1.13% (equivalent to 274,532 bags) compared to the prior crop year.