Coffee Prices Today, October 9th: Markets Reverse Course with a Strong Rebound

Today’s coffee prices rebounded sharply on both major exchanges, recovering after two consecutive sessions of decline earlier in the week. In Brazil, recent rainfall has led to widespread coffee flowering; however, the success of this crucial stage will depend on the amount and frequency of follow-up rain in the coming weeks.

Global Coffee Market Update

At the close of trading on October 8th, Robusta futures on the London exchange saw a significant rally. The November 2025 contract settled at $4,542 per metric ton, a sharp increase of 2.90% ($128/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also climbed by 2.19% ($96/ton) to end the day at $4,484 per metric ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures posted strong gains as well. The December 2025 contract rose by 2.58% (9.70 US cents/lb) from the prior session, closing at 385.10 US cents/pound. The March 2026 contract increased by 2.46% (8.85 US cents/lb) to settle at 368.00 US cents/pound.

Coffee prices found renewed support and rallied strongly after facing downward pressure on Monday and Tuesday. Traders noted that the market had been weighed down by the initiation of talks between the presidents of Brazil and the United States, which sparked speculation that the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports might be reconsidered, though the outcome remains uncertain.

Market Analysis: Weather in Brazil Remains the Key Focus

According to the latest field reports from Brazil, recent rainfall (averaging 20–25 mm) has triggered widespread flowering of coffee trees. However, the ultimate success of this flowering—and thus the potential size of the next crop—will be determined by the amount and consistency of rain over the next few weeks.

The situation is further complicated by high temperatures, with the Cerrado Mineiro region already experiencing temperatures exceeding 30°C at the start of spring.

“What worries us is the weather, as the rain has not yet stabilized,” Fernando Couto, a farmer and agronomist in the region, told Reuters.

Couto added that on most irrigated farms, the flowers have already opened. However, the situation is more challenging in non-irrigated areas, where many are expecting flowering to occur this week, particularly as more rain is in the forecast for the coming days.

Still, rainfall distribution is expected to be uneven. The Southern Minas Gerais region is forecasted to receive approximately 90 mm of rain over the next 15 days, while Cerrado Mineiro is expected to receive only about 30 mm.

According to agricultural engineer Jonas Leme Ferraresso, the ideal condition is for at least 40–60 mm of rain in the days following the flowering period.

Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira, coordinator of the geoprocessing department at Cooxupé—Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative—stated that the recent rains have indeed stimulated flowering, but “it is still too early to determine whether the fruit load will be good.”

Adriano Rabelo, technical coordinator at Minasul, another major cooperative, also expressed caution, noting that “to have a good harvest, we will certainly need more rain in the coming days.”

According to Minasul, the flowering process in some monitored areas has been disappointing. Héberson Vilas Boas Sastre, commercial director at Minasul, was quoted by Notícias Agrícolas as saying:

“We have observed some coffee plantations with delayed and uneven flowering, likely due to adverse weather conditions.” He added, “The uneven distribution of rain, combined with sharp temperature fluctuations, has significantly affected the flowering process, causing some areas to bloom while others have not. The characteristic uniform flowering, with a blanket of white covering the coffee farms, has not been widely observed this year.”