Coffee Prices Today, September 2: Robusta Drops Sharply but Market Sentiment Remains Optimistic

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange reversed sharply, falling by USD 174/ton, while the New York exchange remained closed today due to the Labor Day holiday. The market entered an overbought technical state after a recent surge, making a short-term correction predictable. However, overall sentiment remains optimistic.

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Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on September 1, the London Robusta coffee futures market recorded a significant decline.

• September 2025 contract: USD 4,827/ton, down 3.48% (USD 174/ton) compared to the previous session.
• November 2025 contract: USD 4,628/ton, down 3.88% (USD 187/ton).

Meanwhile, the New York exchange was closed for the Labor Day holiday. Arabica prices at the close of the previous session stood at:

• September 2025 contract: 396.85 US cents/pound.
• December 2025 contract: 386.1 US cents/pound.

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Vietnam Coffee Price Update – September 2

Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam dropped sharply this morning, in line with global adjustments.

• Đắk Nông: VND 121,500/kg (down 1,200).
• Đắk Lắk: VND 121,300/kg (down 1,200).
• Gia Lai: VND 121,000/kg (down 1,200).
• Lâm Đồng: VND 120,500/kg (down 1,300).

The average national purchasing price has fallen to VND 121,300/kg.

As predicted, domestic prices dropped by VND 1,200–1,300/kg across all major coffee-producing provinces.

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Global Market Dynamics

According to Reuters, traders confirmed that the coffee market had become technically overbought after recent strong rallies, prompting a natural short-term correction. Still, general sentiment remains upbeat.

Prices continue to receive support from the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. This move has nearly frozen coffee trade between the two countries and fueled stockpiling in warehouses.

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Brazil Crop Outlook

On August 29, consulting firm Safras & Mercado revised Brazil’s 2025–2026 coffee crop forecast down to 63.35 million 60-kg bags, a 3.3% reduction from the previous estimate of 65.51 million bags.

• Arabica production was cut by 6%, now estimated at 38.05 million bags.
• Robusta/Conilon harvest, however, was reported as excellent, exceeding 25 million bags, partially offsetting Arabica’s shortfall.

Analyst Gil Barabach explained that the second half of the Arabica harvest yielded lower-than-expected productivity, despite favorable early-season conditions.

With the revised figure of 63.35 million bags, Brazil’s 2025–2026 coffee output will be 3% lower than the previous season. Exports are also projected to fall 11%, while stockpiles remain low, further tightening global supply.

This underlines the importance of a strong 2026–2027 crop, expected to begin flowering in the coming weeks. Its outcome will be a key driver for market direction into early autumn.

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Supply and Demand Forecasts

A Reuters poll of market experts suggested that the global coffee balance in 2025–2026 will likely remain stable, with a slight surplus of about 1.45 million bags.

• Brazil’s production for 2025–2026 is estimated at 65 million bags.
• With favorable Arabica cycles, the 2026–2027 harvest could reach 70 million bags.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s 2025–2026 harvest, set to begin this autumn, is projected at 31 million bags, up 10.71% compared to the previous crop year.

Based on these forecasts, analysts expect coffee prices in New York and London to ease slightly by the end of the year, to 330 US cents/pound and USD 3,500/ton, respectively.